ASML Holding (ASML) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · NL · Market cap €590B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €443.80 to €604.27 (+36.2%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€877.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (€424.53 to €877.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €384.11 – €1,721 · fair‑value band €424.53 – €877.25 · the €1,580 price screens above the €604.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ASML Holding (ASML) currently trades at €1,580, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €604.27, implying the stock looks roughly 61.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ASML Holding generated revenue of €33.7B at a net margin of 29.7%. Revenue grew 13.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 52.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €10.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €424.53 (bear case) to €877.25 (bull case); at €1,580, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 170% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -62%, ASML screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€814.78) versus Asset-Based (€34.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.
Full company description
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ASML Holding reported revenue of €32.7B in FY2025 versus €18.6B in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was €9.6B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ASML screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Applied Materials, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ASML Stock Rises 1.7% as AI Demand Signal Strengthens
- Why ASML Holding (ASML) Could Be the Biggest AI Chip Enabler
- Is ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) Trading At A Premium Or Fair Value?
- ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) Draws Fresh Attention After $400 Million Bet On Lithography Rival
Peer Group
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 208 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $548.15 | $183.10 | -67% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $326.11 | $91.80 | -72% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $200.47 | $74.58 | -63% |
| NAURA Technology Group 002371 | ¥760.00 | ¥205.30 | -73% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥380.95 | ¥55.05 | -86% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥685.11 | ¥89.27 | -87% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 6,480 TWD | 1,804 TWD | -72% |
| MPI Corporation 6223 | 6,495 TWD | 738.64 TWD | -89% |
| HANMI Semiconductor Co 042700 | 217,500 KRW | 47,976 KRW | -78% |
| Wonik IPS Co 240810 | 120,000 KRW | 36,380 KRW | -70% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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