ArcelorMittal SA (ARRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · DE · Market cap €43.7B · ISIN LU1598757687
What is ArcelorMittal SA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 44% above our fair value of €46.71.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from €54.12 to €46.71 (−13.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +4.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€46.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.52 – €67.38 · fair‑value band €37.28 – €46.71 · the €67.38 price screens above the €46.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
ArcelorMittal SA (ARRD) currently trades at €67.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €46.71, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €62.29 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the €67.38 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €8.01, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ArcelorMittal SA generated revenue of €62.0B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at €7.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €37.28 (bear case) to €46.71 (bull case); at €67.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 165% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −31%, ARRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €2.01 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€62.29) versus Growth DCF (€4.53). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.
Full company description
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It offers semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, such as blooms and billets; finished long products consisting of bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company also provides mining products, such as iron ore lumps, fines, concentrate, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking coal. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, and distributors. The company operates iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine, as well as in India and in Canada. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ArcelorMittal SA reported revenue of $61.4B in FY2025 versus $76.6B in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding −36.7%/yr from FY2021.
ARRD screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
Peer Group
Steel · 398 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $250.50 | $116.05 | −54% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | −14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $234.67 | $127.14 | −46% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | −16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.80 | ₹145.39 | −22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $387.59 | $217.81 | −44% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $63.13 | $85.21 | +35% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | −61% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,891 | ₹793.69 | −58% |
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