Smith AO Corporation (AOS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $8.3B · ISIN US8318652091
What is Smith AO Corporation really worth?
Smith AO Corporation
AOS · US
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of $64.55.
Strengths
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −4.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($42.90 to $92.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.06 – $88.44 · fair‑value band $42.90 – $92.29 · the $60.53 price screens below the $64.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Smith AO Corporation (AOS) currently trades at $60.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.55, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $69.99 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $60.53 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.90, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Smith AO Corporation generated revenue of $3.8B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.3%. Net debt stands at $17.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $42.90 (bear case) to $92.29 (bull case); at $60.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at 7%, AOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.59 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($69.99) versus Asset-Based ($8.90). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India.
Full company description
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India. The company offers water heaters for residences, restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, and small businesses; boilers for hospitals, schools, hotels, homes, apartments, and condominiums, and other large commercial buildings; and water treatment products comprising point-of-entry water softeners, well water solutions, and whole-home water filtration products, and point-of-use carbon and reverse osmosis products for residences, restaurants, hotels, and offices. It also provides commercial water treatment and filtration products; expansion tanks, commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool and spa heaters, and related products and parts; and electric wall-hung, gas tankless, combi-boiler, and heat pump and solar water heaters. The company offers its products under the A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, Water-Right, Master Water, Atlantic Filter, Impact, and Water Tec brands. It distributes its products through independent wholesale plumbing distributors, as well as to retail channels consisting of hardware and home center chains, and manufacturer representative firms, as well as offers Aquasana branded products directly to consumers through e-commerce channels; and A. O. Smith branded water treatment products through dealer network and Amazon. A. O. Smith Corporation was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smith AO Corporation reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $546M in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.7 % · buybacks/dilution +2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AOS: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- A. O. Smith Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
- A. O. Smith Faces Near-Term Earnings Risk; Easy Comparisons, Valuation Remain Supportive, Oppenheimer Says
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 792 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $941.84 | $131.95 | −86% |
| SIE SIE | €289.85 | €139.77 | −52% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $402.78 | $168.65 | −58% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $995.02 | $398.69 | −60% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 206.60 | kr 112.59 | −46% |
| Cummins Inc CMI | $564.40 | $348.94 | −38% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $281.67 | $145.84 | −48% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $155.18 | $58.44 | −62% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $236.25 | $125.80 | −47% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $417.53 | $125.76 | −70% |
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