ANZ Group (ANZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$108B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$25.43 to A$27.91 (+9.8%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$34.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$16.69 – A$39.97 · fair‑value band A$20.94 – A$34.89 · the A$38.89 price screens above the A$27.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ANZ Group (ANZ) currently trades at A$38.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$27.91, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ANZ Group generated revenue of A$21.5B at a net margin of 27.4%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at A$97.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$20.94 (bear case) to A$34.89 (bull case); at A$38.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -28%, ANZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$25.43) versus Asset-Based (A$15.83). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ANZ Group Holdings Limited engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services to retail and business customers in Australia and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal, Business & Agri, and Institutional.
Full company description
ANZ Group Holdings Limited engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services to retail and business customers in Australia and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal, Business & Agri, and Institutional. It offers banking and wealth management services to consumer and private banking customers; banking services to small and medium enterprises, and the agricultural business. The company also provides loan products, loan syndication, specialized loan structuring and execution, project and export finance, debt structuring and acquisition finance, and finance solutions; working capital and liquidity solutions, including documentary trade, supply chain financing, commodity financing, as well as cash management solutions, deposits, payments, and clearing. In addition, it offers risk management services in foreign exchange, interest rates, credit, commodities, and debt capital markets. The company provides its services through internet and app-based digital solutions, a network of branches, mortgage specialists, private bankers, and contact centers. ANZ Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1835 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ANZ Group reported revenue of A$67.4B in FY2025 versus A$23.2B in FY2021, a compound +30.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ANZ screens 28% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Assessing ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
- How The ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) Investment Story Is Shifting On Mixed Analyst Signals
- ANZ Group halts share buyback, redirects funds to strategic revamp
- ANZ Scraps Buyback to Invest in Mortgage, Commercial Bankers
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $365.18 | $217.97 | -40% |
| Bank of America Corporation BOFA | C$31.78 | C$18.89 | -41% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.24 | ¥18.21 | +78% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.52 | ¥14.44 | +92% |
| HSBC Holdings HBCN | 1,610 MXN | 1,364 MXN | -15% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.56 | ¥12.94 | +97% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.83 | ¥11.24 | +93% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 55.29 PLN | 31.78 PLN | -43% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 565.49 MXN | -40% |
| Barclays PLC BCSN | 475.00 MXN | 332.60 MXN | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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