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A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (AMKBF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $38.8B

AP A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S logo A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S AMKBF · US
Price$2,850
Fair Value$3,147
Upside+10.4%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.76% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Narrow moat 21/100
Evidence: Low Range $2,360 – $3,934 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +13.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 10% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
  • Our model range runs from $2,360 (bear) to $3,934 (bull), base $3,147. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 55/100 (solid quality) with low evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$2,850 $374.28 Fair Value $3,147 Dec 2018 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $374.28 – $2,850 · fair‑value band $2,360 – $3,934 · the $2,850 price screens below the $3,147 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (AMKBF) currently trades at $2,850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3,147, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S generated revenue of $53.6B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. Net debt stands at $9.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2,360 (bear case) to $3,934 (bull case); at $2,850, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 10%, AMKBF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $4,733 $6,376 $8,657 80
Residual Income $2,828 $2,899 $2,827 76
Rev-Margin DCF $2,888 $3,840 $4,885 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4,586 $6,315 $8,820 38
Owner Earnings $3,379 $4,623 $6,427 31
5Y Revenue Exit $2,888 $3,762 $4,819 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $5,239 $7,858 $10,805 41
5Y P/E Exit $3,467 $4,771 $6,068 38
10Y Revenue Exit $3,446 $4,327 $5,327 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $4,953 $7,067 $9,576 37
10Y P/E Exit $3,854 $5,003 $6,213 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1,259 $2,567 $3,235 54
EPV $1,747 $1,992 $2,207 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1,589 $2,323 $3,089 70
DDM Multi-Stage $1,589 $2,249 $3,010 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2,916 $3,888 $4,859 63
P/S Multiple $2,360 $3,147 $3,934 58
P/B Multiple $2,360 $3,147 $3,934 55
EV/EBIT $2,709 $3,520 $4,331 53
EV/EBITDA $6,421 $8,469 $10,517 54
EV/Revenue $2,013 $2,757 $3,501 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1,820 $2,438 $3,639 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4,733 $6,376 $8,657 80
Rev-Margin DCF $2,888 $3,840 $4,885 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2,828 $2,899 $2,827 76
ROIC Compounder $1,747 $1,992 $2,207 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2,124 $3,034 $3,944 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($4,771) versus Earnings-Based ($1,992). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $53.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.6%
Net margin 3.0%
Return on equity 3.2%
Free cash flow $6.3B FY2025
P/E ratio 24.8 as of Jun 18, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 1.6%
EPS (TTM) $108.11
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -94.6%
Net debt $9.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 85
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated logistics company in Denmark and internationally. The company operates through Ocean, Logistics & Services, and Terminals segments.

Full company description

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated logistics company in Denmark and internationally. The company operates through Ocean, Logistics & Services, and Terminals segments. The company offers ocean, inland, less-than-container load, and air and ground freight solutions; warehousing, distribution, and depot services; cold chain solutions, cold chain management, pharmaceutical cold chain management, and cold storage solutions; and customs clearance, e-commerce logistics, and lead logistics services. It also provides ocean transport, specialized airlift, and vessel chartering services; project planning, orchestration, and site support; specialized cargo handling, cargo storage, and survey services. In addition, the company offers value-added services, such as labelling, relabeling, tagging or retagging, kitting and product customization, garments on hangers, re-packing, quality controls, reporting, shaving/topping off pallets, reverse logistics, and goods disposal services. It serves FMCG, fashion and lifestyle, retail, chemicals, automotive, technology, pharma and healthcare, and perishables industries. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S reported revenue of $54.0B in FY2025 versus $61.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding −37.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$54.0B
Latest YoY
−2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Revenue −3.3%/yr
FY21 $61.8B
FY22 $81.5B
FY23 $51.1B
FY24 $55.5B
FY25 $54.0B
Net income −37.0%/yr
FY21 $17.9B
FY22 $29.2B
FY23 $3.8B
FY24 $6.1B
FY25 $2.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +7.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.4 pp

of which total revenue +2.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +3.3 pp

EBIT margin −1.9 pp
Tax rate +3.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMKBF

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 233 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +10% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.09× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.70× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.72× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 6.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.38× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 47 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 13 · sector 26
HEALTH 96 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 55 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI 3,640 IDR 368.32 IDR -90%
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Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM 136.33 CLP 146.31 CLP +7%
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII 795.00 IDR 350.80 IDR -56%
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Frequently asked questions

Is A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (AMKBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3,147 versus a price of $2,850, about +10% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AMKBF?
Our model-based fair value for A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S is $3,147 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $2,850.
What is the quality score of AMKBF?
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (AMKBF)?
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $53.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AMKBF?
The net profit margin of A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S pay a dividend?
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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