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Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · BR · Market cap R$16.1B (≈ $3.2B) · ISIN BRALUPCDAM15

What is Alupar Investimento SA really worth?

AI Alupar Investimento SA ALUP11 · SA
PriceR$33.47
Fair ValueR$54.81
Upside+63.8%
Quality65/100

A solid business, trading 39% below our fair value of R$54.81.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 25.2% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (14/15)
✓Wide moat 71/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.5 %/yr)
!Weak on future: 13 out of 100

For context

·2.26% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range R$33.31 – R$77.55

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +1.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (R$33.31 to R$77.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$36.54 R$16.88 Fair Value R$54.81 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$16.88 – R$36.54 · fair‑value band R$33.31 – R$77.55 · the R$33.47 price screens below the R$54.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) currently trades at R$33.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$54.81, implying the stock looks roughly 38.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$66.80 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$33.47 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$18.63, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alupar Investimento SA generated revenue of R$4.4B at a net margin of 25.2%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at R$11.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$33.31 (bear case) to R$77.55 (bull case); at R$33.47, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 64%, ALUP11 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$2.31 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence R$34.84 R$45.93 R$55.64 74
FCF DCF R$46.82 R$110.50 R$221.34 72
Growth DCF R$46.24 R$104.72 R$203.81 71
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$46.82 R$110.50 R$221.34 72
Owner Earnings R$22.68 R$66.80 R$143.59 67
5Y Revenue Exit R$9.13 R$30.49 R$57.91 65
5Y EBITDA Exit R$36.22 R$86.36 R$148.78 69
5Y P/E Exit R$24.66 R$62.50 R$105.17 65
10Y Revenue Exit R$20.38 R$44.91 R$79.75 61
10Y EBITDA Exit R$39.14 R$85.85 R$155.83 63
10Y P/E Exit R$31.47 R$68.37 R$119.32 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$25.08 R$116.39 R$159.88 62
Lynch FV R$30.69 R$43.85 R$57.00 59
PEG = 1.0 R$30.69 R$43.85 R$57.00 55
EPV best evidence R$34.84 R$45.93 R$55.64 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$24.39 R$50.71 R$80.45 64
DDM Multi-Stage R$24.39 R$42.76 R$53.23 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$49.78 R$66.38 R$82.97 63
P/S Multiple R$25.02 R$33.36 R$41.69 58
P/B Multiple R$37.53 R$50.04 R$62.55 55
EV/EBIT R$64.29 R$96.30 R$128.31 65
EV/EBITDA R$36.52 R$59.26 R$82.01 66
EV/Revenue — R$1.63 R$11.64 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$13.90 R$18.63 R$27.80 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$46.24 R$104.72 R$203.81 71
Rev-Margin DCF R$9.13 R$30.88 R$59.14 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$26.68 R$31.90 R$58.22 71
ROIC Compounder R$38.33 R$63.84 R$95.73 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$45.10 R$64.43 R$83.77 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$66.80) versus Asset-Based (R$18.63). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.1 as of Jul 15, 2026
P/S ratio 2.24 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) R$4.17 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1
Dividend yield 2.3% payout 18.2%
Net margin 27.6% FY2025
Return on equity 12.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 58.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) R$4.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.6% 3y avg +4.7%
EPS growth (YoY) −33.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow R$2.0B FY2025
Net debt R$11.9B FY2025 · ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments.

Full company description

Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments. The company holds a stake in concessions for 44 electric power transmission systems totaling 9,999 kilometers of transmission lines; and operates overhead lines and substations. It is also involved in the generation of renewable energy through hydroelectric plants, wind farms, and photovoltaic plants, which have an installed capacity of 798.5 MW. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Alupar Investimento S.A. is a subsidiary of Guarupart Participações Ltda.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alupar Investimento SA reported revenue of R$4.4B in FY2025 versus R$5.2B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$4.4B
Latest YoY
+9.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+32.4% (30.1 + 2.3)
Revenue −4.3%/yr
FY21 R$5.2B
FY22 R$3.8B
FY23 R$3.3B
FY24 R$4.0B
FY25 R$4.4B
Net income +2.2%/yr
FY21 R$1.1B
FY22 R$918M
FY23 R$694M
FY24 R$1.1B
FY25 R$1.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +14.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.7 %

of which total revenue +11.2 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %

EBIT margin −1.1 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Alupar Investimento SA · Fair Value
R$54.81 +39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alupar Investimento SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALUP11

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +64% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.22× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.34× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.26× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 6
FUTURE13 · sector 0
PAST51 · sector 14
HEALTH39 · sector 68
DIVIDEND45 · sector 44

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.96 ¥25.13 −10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 139.25 kr 31.40 −77%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.79 ¥5.57 −43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,319 ₹169.61 −87%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.49 −12%
VERBUND AG OEWA €57.00 €66.19 +16%
BEP BEP $31.27 $70.40 +125%
BEPUN BEPUN C$45.05 C$42.83 −5%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.80 €13.55 −32%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥15.92 ¥7.55 −53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$54.81 versus a price of R$33.47, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALUP11?
Our model-based fair value for Alupar Investimento SA is R$54.81 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$33.47.
What is the quality score of ALUP11?
Alupar Investimento SA has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Alupar Investimento SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$4.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALUP11?
The net profit margin of Alupar Investimento SA is about 25.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alupar Investimento SA pay a dividend?
Alupar Investimento SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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