Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.4B · ISIN LU0584671464
What is Adecoagro SA really worth?
Adecoagro SA
AGRO · US
Below-average quality, trading 29% below our fair value of $16.35.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +26.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (12/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($8.77 to $23.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.90 – $15.18 · fair‑value band $8.77 – $23.94 · the $11.60 price screens below the $16.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) currently trades at $11.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.35, implying the stock looks roughly 29.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.69 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the $11.60 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.10, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Adecoagro SA generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 22.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.77 (bear case) to $23.94 (bull case); at $11.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 41%, AGRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0136 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($7.69) versus Multiples ($0.9200). Highest evidence: 5Y EBITDA Exit (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming.
Full company description
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Adecoagro SA reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.3M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +7.6 % · buybacks/dilution +1.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Farm Products · 293 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM | $81.54 | $38.02 | −53% |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.15 | ¥47.42 | +18% |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $111.57 | $56.19 | −50% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $55.40 | $28.60 | −48% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥13.80 | ¥11.18 | −19% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 201.80 | kr 256.14 | +27% |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥201.06 | ¥143.09 | −29% |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 32.60 MYR | 23.34 MYR | −28% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 23.40 THB | 43.24 THB | +85% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 2,960 IDR | 6,818 IDR | +130% |
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