American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financials · US · Market cap $9.9B · ISIN US0259328641
What is American Financial Group, Inc. really worth?
American Financial Group, Inc.
AFGE · US
A solid business, but trading 15% above our fair value of $13.69.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from $13.71 to $13.69 (−0.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −2.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.92 – $20.98 · fair‑value band $10.27 – $17.11 · the $15.81 price screens above the $13.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) currently trades at $15.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.69, implying the stock looks roughly 15.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $12.50 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $15.81 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.17, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Net debt stands at $93.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.27 (bear case) to $17.11 (bull case); at $15.81, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −13%, AFGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($12.50) versus Asset-Based ($5.17). Highest evidence: Residual Income (71).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
American Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, Run-Off Long-Term Care and Life, and Other segments.
Full company description
American Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, Run-Off Long-Term Care and Life, and Other segments. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and recreational vehicles, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other property coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets and customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for leasing and financing institutions, surety and fidelity products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers, as well as through employee agents. It also provides traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities to the retail, financial institutions, and education markets; and engages in the commercial real estate operations in Cincinnati, Whitefield, New Hampshire, Chesapeake Bay, Charleston, and Palm Beach. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Financial Group, Inc. reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $842M in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AFGE screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Ping An Insurance (Group) Company →
Peer Group
Financials · 3318 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Insurance” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Financials median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 82318 | HK$48.18 | HK$61.00 | +27% |
| 540755 540755 | ₹348.25 | ₹696.50 | +100% |
| 500271 500271 | ₹1,562 | ₹453.95 | −71% |
| NRCP NRCP | 1.25 PHP | 2.50 PHP | +100% |
| AIA Group 81299 | HK$62.10 | HK$6.45 | −90% |
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCKK | $13.00 | $26.00 | +100% |
| CGABL CGABL | $16.15 | $10.52 | −35% |
| AIZN AIZN | $18.44 | $22.31 | +21% |
| Reinsurance Group RZB | $25.34 | $43.96 | +73% |
| MGRB MGRB | $16.13 | $23.73 | +47% |
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