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ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $5.9B · ISIN US0044981019

What is ACI Worldwide Inc really worth?

AW ACI Worldwide Inc logo ACI Worldwide Inc ACIW · US
Price$52.91
Fair Value$51.84
Upside−2.0%
Quality74/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $51.84.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.3 %/yr)
Solidly profitable · 11.5% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 59/100
!Weak on dividend: 13 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $30.49 – $71.36

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −7.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($30.49 to $71.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$60.18 $19.75 Fair Value $51.84 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.75 – $60.18 · fair‑value band $30.49 – $71.36 · the $52.91 price screens above the $51.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW) currently trades at $52.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.84, implying the stock looks roughly 2.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.33 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $52.91 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.01, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, ACI Worldwide Inc generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at $675M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $30.49 (bear case) to $71.36 (bull case); at $52.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −2%, ACIW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.34 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $27.95 $46.99 $75.57 79
Growth DCF $28.27 $44.75 $67.81 78
Owner Earnings $19.95 $34.47 $56.26 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $27.95 $46.99 $75.57 79
Owner Earnings $19.95 $34.47 $56.26 74
5Y Revenue Exit $24.49 $42.52 $65.63 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $33.21 $59.13 $89.72 74
5Y P/E Exit $33.22 $59.15 $86.76 70
10Y Revenue Exit $24.56 $41.22 $63.90 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $30.91 $52.60 $82.17 67
10Y P/E Exit $30.92 $52.61 $79.93 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $15.16 $51.40 $68.92 64
Lynch FV $11.77 $16.81 $21.85 61
PEG = 1.0 $11.77 $16.81 $21.85 57
EPV $16.64 $20.17 $23.21 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.51 $5.00 $7.57 67
DDM Multi-Stage $2.51 $4.24 $5.27 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $46.82 $62.43 $78.03 63
P/S Multiple $28.43 $37.90 $47.38 58
P/B Multiple $28.43 $37.90 $47.38 55
EV/EBIT $52.71 $72.18 $91.65 66
EV/EBITDA $41.10 $56.70 $72.30 67
EV/Revenue $23.82 $36.48 $49.14 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.47 $10.01 $14.94 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $28.27 $44.75 $67.81 78
Rev-Margin DCF $24.49 $42.54 $63.81 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.67 $19.27 $54.42 66
ROIC Compounder $17.13 $23.09 $30.63 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $38.73 $55.33 $71.93 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($55.33) versus Dividend Discount ($4.24). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 26.7
P/S ratio 3.44 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.98 price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7
Dividend yield 0.7% payout 18.0%
Net margin 12.9% FY2025
Return on equity 13.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 14.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.9% 3y avg +7.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −32.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $310M FY2025
Net debt $675M FY2025 · ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 98
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

ACI Worldwide, Inc. develops, markets, installs, and supports software products and services for facilitating electronic payments in the United States and worldwide. It operates through Payment Software, and Billers segments.

Full company description

ACI Worldwide, Inc. develops, markets, installs, and supports software products and services for facilitating electronic payments in the United States and worldwide. It operates through Payment Software, and Billers segments. The company offers ACI Acquiring, a solution to process credit, debit, and prepaid card transactions, deliver digital innovation, fraud prevention, and reduce fees; ACI Issuing, a digital payment issuing solution; and ACI Connetic, a solution that offers payment services for processing, routing, and managing various payment types. It provides ACI real-time payments, a solution that provides connectivity to payment rails; ACI RTGS and cross-border, a payments engine that offers multi-currency, payment and STP processing, and back-office integration interfaces; and ACI digital central infrastructure, a solution that offers real-time payments service. Further, it offers ACI Payments Orchestration Platform, a payments platform that orchestrates and optimizes payments; ACI Fraud Management for merchants, billers, and financial institutions; ACI Fraud Scoring Services with artificial and human insights with data intelligence; and Speedpay, an integrated suite of digital billing, payment, disbursement, and communication services. Additionally, it offers electronic bill presentment and payment services to consumer finance, insurance, healthcare, higher education, utility, government, subscription provider, telecommunications, and mortgage sectors; product installations and configurations, and custom software modifications; and business and technical consultancy, on-site support, product education, and testing services, as well distributes software developed by third parties. It markets its products and services under the ACI Worldwide brand. The company was formerly known as Transaction Systems Architects, Inc. and changed its name to ACI Worldwide, Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Elkhorn, Nebraska.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ACI Worldwide Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $227M in FY2025, compounding +15.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.8B
Latest YoY
+10.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (31Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+29.3% (28.6 + 0.7)
Revenue +6.4%/yr
FY21 $1.4B
FY22 $1.4B
FY23 $1.5B
FY24 $1.6B
FY25 $1.8B
Net income +15.4%/yr
FY21 $128M
FY22 $142M
FY23 $122M
FY24 $203M
FY25 $227M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.3 %

of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution +1.1 %

EBIT margin +1.3 %
Tax rate +1.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ACI Worldwide Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACIW

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −2% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.51× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.30× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 17.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.78× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE31 · sector 0
FUTURE40 · sector 50
PAST55 · sector 15
HEALTH74 · sector 98
DIVIDEND13 · sector 26

Insider activity: 78/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

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Synopsys, Inc SNPS $442.61 $101.19 −77%
Block, Inc XYZ A$111.01 A$70.69 −36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $105.26 $71.79 −32%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $190.64 $154.83 −19%
Adyen N.V ADYEN €1,007 €707.53 −30%
MongoDB, Inc MDB $440.58 $93.91 −79%
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Frequently asked questions

Is ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $51.84 versus a price of $52.91, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ACIW?
Our model-based fair value for ACI Worldwide Inc is $51.84 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.91.
What is the quality score of ACIW?
ACI Worldwide Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW)?
ACI Worldwide Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ACIW?
The net profit margin of ACI Worldwide Inc is about 11.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ACI Worldwide Inc pay a dividend?
ACI Worldwide Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
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