Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.2B · ISIN US00404A1097
At a glance
AHAcadia Healthcare Company IncACHC · US
Price$28.53
Fair Value$44.30
Upside+55.3%
Quality34/100
Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value of $44.30.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $44.30 per share against a price of $28.53, so the fair value sits 55% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -32.8% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $26.37 to $62.22
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −8.3% over the past month.
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What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
A fairly wide model range ($26.37 to $62.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.68 – $89.06 · fair‑value band $26.37 – $62.22 · the $28.53 price screens below the $44.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) currently trades at $28.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.30, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $46.29 per share, and 3 of the 8 models we run sit above the $28.53 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.20, and 5 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Acadia Healthcare Company Inc generated revenue of $3.4B at a net margin of −32.8%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −41.1%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: $26.37 (bear) to $62.22 (bull), the price of $28.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 150% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 55%, ACHC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio0.69TTM
EPS (TTM)$−12.20
Dividend yield0.8%
Net margin−33.3%FY2025
Return on equity−41.1%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)8.7%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin10.1%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$3.4BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+7.6%3y avg +8.3%
EPS growth (YoY)−49.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$440MFY2025
Net debt$2.5BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality34/100
Of which business quality 32
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance91
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company owns and operates acute inpatient psychiatric facilities; specialty treatment facilities comprising residential recovery facilities and eating disorder facilities; comprehensive treatment centers; and residential treatment centers, as …
Full company description
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company owns and operates acute inpatient psychiatric facilities; specialty treatment facilities comprising residential recovery facilities and eating disorder facilities; comprehensive treatment centers; and residential treatment centers, as well as facilities providing outpatient behavioral healthcare services for the behavioral healthcare and recovery needs of communities. Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.
Growth Quality 34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.3B
Latest YoY
+5.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.4%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.5% (2020) → 16.6% (2024)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 24
FUTURE38· sector 26
PAST0· sector 30
HEALTH37· sector 90
DIVIDEND15· sector 43
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.30 versus a price of $28.53, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ACHC?
Our model-based fair value for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $44.30 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.53.
What is the quality score of ACHC?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.30 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.37, optimistic scenario $62.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.30, about +55% upside versus a price of $28.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $26.37, optimistic scenario $62.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ACHC?
The net profit margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is about −32.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Acadia Healthcare Company Inc pay a dividend?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Acadia Healthcare Company Inc it is $44.30 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of $28.53. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, ACHC trades below its calculated fair value: price $28.53, fair value $44.30, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.30). For Acadia Healthcare Company Inc the two are $15.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc worth?
The market values Acadia Healthcare Company Inc at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is $28.53; our models calculate a fair value of $44.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACHC?
Our models span a range for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc: cautious scenario $26.37, base $44.30, optimistic $62.22 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price $28.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ACHC?
The PEG ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity −41.1%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACHC from its 52-week high?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc trades at $28.53, about 6% below its 52-week high of $30.20 and 150% above the low of $11.43 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $44.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Acadia Healthcare Company Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price $28.53, calculated fair value $44.30 (+55%), Quality Score 34/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACHC calculated?
We run Acadia Healthcare Company Inc through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $44.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Acadia Healthcare Company Inc currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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Acadia Healthcare Company Inc
ACHC · US