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Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd (601811) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · CN · Market cap 14.6B CNY (≈ $2.2B) · ISIN CNE100002BC5

What is Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd really worth?

XW Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd 601811 · SHG
Price¥11.49
Fair Value¥21.02
Upside+82.9%
Quality65/100

A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of ¥21.02.

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Strengths

Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/13)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 45/100

For context

·5.31% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range ¥17.01 – ¥25.34

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Share price −6.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥17.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥20.90 ¥7.70 Fair Value ¥21.02 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.70 – ¥20.90 · fair‑value band ¥17.01 – ¥25.34 · the ¥11.49 price screens below the ¥21.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd (601811) currently trades at ¥11.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥21.02, implying the stock looks roughly 45.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥25.75 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥11.49 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥8.29, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd generated revenue of 11.7B CNY at a net margin of 13.4%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 8.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥17.01 (bear case) to ¥25.34 (bull case); at ¥11.49, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 83%, 601811 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.4484 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence ¥20.85 ¥29.36 ¥42.82 77
Growth DCF ¥20.99 ¥28.35 ¥39.17 75
Residual Income ¥10.98 ¥12.25 ¥19.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence ¥20.85 ¥29.36 ¥42.82 77
Owner Earnings ¥23.23 ¥33.21 ¥49.01 73
5Y Revenue Exit ¥16.92 ¥22.27 ¥29.08 70
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥17.83 ¥24.01 ¥31.25 72
5Y P/E Exit ¥24.23 ¥36.31 ¥49.31 67
10Y Revenue Exit ¥17.94 ¥23.24 ¥30.42 64
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥18.77 ¥24.46 ¥32.11 66
10Y P/E Exit ¥22.90 ¥33.13 ¥46.25 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥8.64 ¥30.43 ¥40.93 61
Lynch FV ¥7.11 ¥10.16 ¥13.20 58
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.11 ¥10.16 ¥13.20 55
EPV ¥14.73 ¥16.00 ¥17.10 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.51 ¥11.45 ¥18.17 64
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.51 ¥9.65 ¥12.02 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥20.97 ¥27.97 ¥34.96 61
P/S Multiple ¥16.21 ¥21.61 ¥27.01 56
P/B Multiple ¥16.21 ¥21.61 ¥27.01 53
EV/EBIT ¥17.77 ¥21.31 ¥24.85 61
EV/EBITDA ¥17.30 ¥20.69 ¥24.07 63
EV/Revenue ¥15.20 ¥18.65 ¥22.11 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥6.18 ¥8.29 ¥12.37 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥20.99 ¥28.35 ¥39.17 75
Rev-Margin DCF ¥16.92 ¥22.34 ¥28.81 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥10.98 ¥12.25 ¥19.00 74
ROIC Compounder ¥15.30 ¥17.71 ¥20.71 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥18.03 ¥25.75 ¥33.48 66

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥25.75) versus Asset-Based (¥8.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.5 as of Jun 15, 2026
P/S ratio 1.27 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥1.27 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5
Dividend yield 5.3% payout 48.0%
Net margin 13.4% FY2025
Return on equity 10.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 9.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 11.7B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.2% 3y avg +2.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 1.4B CNY FY2025
Net cash 8.5B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co., Ltd. engages in the publishing and distribution businesses in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Publication and Distribution.

Full company description

Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co., Ltd. engages in the publishing and distribution businesses in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Publication and Distribution. The Publication segment publishes books, newspapers, periodicals, audio-visual products, and electronic products; provides printing services; and supplies printing materials. The Distribution segment provides textbooks, educational informatization, and educational equipment for primary and secondary schools, teachers, and students; retailing, distribution, and online sales of publications. The company provides intellectual property services; logistics business services; involved in wholesale and retail of pre-packaged of goods; import and export business; property leasing; accommodation and catering business; exhibition and conferences services; and advertising agency and leasing businesses. Further, the company engages in project investment and management; and organizing and planning cultural and art exchange activities. Additionally, it offers computer software development and system services; business consulting; film and television program production and distribution; and digital content. It provides its services through multi-scenario online and offline reading service systems, including website, cloud store, third-party and content e-commerce platforms, and offline distribution channels. The company was formerly known as Sichuan Xinhua Winshare Chainstore Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co., Ltd. in 2010. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd reported revenue of 11.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
11.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.7% (4.4 + 5.3)
Revenue +2.9%/yr
FY21 10.5B CNY
FY22 10.9B CNY
FY23 11.9B CNY
FY24 12.3B CNY
FY25 11.7B CNY
Net income +4.7%/yr
FY21 1.3B CNY
FY22 1.4B CNY
FY23 1.6B CNY
FY24 1.5B CNY
FY25 1.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +9.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.6 %

of which total revenue +8.4 % · buybacks/dilution −0.8 %

EBIT margin +3.7 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601811

Peer Group

Publishing · 108 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Above median
Fair Value upside +83% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Publishing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.96× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.25× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 39
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST41 · sector 22
HEALTH0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND100 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd (601811) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥21.02 versus a price of ¥11.49, about +83% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601811?
Our model-based fair value for Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd is ¥21.02 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.49.
What is the quality score of 601811?
Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd (601811)?
Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601811?
The net profit margin of Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd is about 13.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.31% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
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