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Shandong Publishing & Media (601019) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · CN · Market cap 14.6B CNY (≈ $2.2B) · ISIN CNE100002TG8

What is Shandong Publishing & Media really worth?

SP Shandong Publishing & Media 601019 · SHG
Price¥7.12
Fair Value¥11.60
Upside+62.9%
Quality65/100

A solid business, trading 39% below our fair value of ¥11.60.

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Strengths

Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/13)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.8 %/yr)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Weak on future: 6 out of 100

For context

·4.92% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range ¥9.28 – ¥13.79

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −1.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥9.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥13.70 ¥4.70 Fair Value ¥11.60 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.70 – ¥13.70 · fair‑value band ¥9.28 – ¥13.79 · the ¥7.12 price screens below the ¥11.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Shandong Publishing & Media (601019) currently trades at ¥7.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.60, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥12.12 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥7.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.94, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Publishing & Media generated revenue of 11.2B CNY at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 5.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥9.28 (bear case) to ¥13.79 (bull case); at ¥7.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 63%, 601019 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.1489 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence ¥9.90 ¥12.79 ¥16.86 80
Growth DCF ¥10.12 ¥12.84 ¥16.52 77
Residual Income ¥6.08 ¥6.47 ¥7.17 76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence ¥9.90 ¥12.79 ¥16.86 80
Owner Earnings ¥9.42 ¥12.12 ¥15.90 75
5Y Revenue Exit ¥8.62 ¥11.15 ¥14.23 71
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.17 ¥12.13 ¥15.38 74
5Y P/E Exit ¥10.67 ¥14.76 ¥18.79 69
10Y Revenue Exit ¥8.89 ¥11.23 ¥14.03 66
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.38 ¥11.89 ¥14.86 67
10Y P/E Exit ¥10.32 ¥13.66 ¥17.32 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.83 ¥8.34 ¥10.62 66
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.31 ¥1.87 ¥2.44 57
EPV ¥7.20 ¥7.90 ¥8.51 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥9.28 ¥12.38 ¥15.47 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.17 ¥9.56 ¥11.95 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.17 ¥9.56 ¥11.95 55
EV/EBIT ¥9.88 ¥12.16 ¥14.45 63
EV/EBITDA ¥9.59 ¥11.79 ¥13.98 64
EV/Revenue ¥8.22 ¥10.45 ¥12.67 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.69 ¥4.94 ¥7.37 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥10.12 ¥12.84 ¥16.52 77
Rev-Margin DCF ¥8.62 ¥11.25 ¥14.05 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥6.08 ¥6.47 ¥7.17 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.20 ¥8.06 ¥9.05 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.86 ¥9.80 ¥12.74 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.12) versus Asset-Based (¥4.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.5
P/S ratio 1.31 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥0.5700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5
Dividend yield 4.9% payout 61.4%
Net margin 10.5% FY2025
Return on equity 7.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 11.2B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.2% 3y avg −0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 1.4B CNY FY2025
Net cash 5.9B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Shandong Publishing&Media Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the publication of textbooks and supplementary materials, general books, periodicals, electronic audio-visual products, and digital products in China.

Full company description

Shandong Publishing&Media Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the publication of textbooks and supplementary materials, general books, periodicals, electronic audio-visual products, and digital products in China. The company publishes and distributes teaching materials and teaching aids, general books, audio-visual products, etc.; and wholesales and retails stationary products. It also engages in the procurement and sale of paper, wood pulp, equipment, and other material products; provision of printing and packaging of various books, newspapers, etc.; and provision of software development, logistics, online education platform, and hotel services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Jinan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shandong Publishing & Media reported revenue of 11.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
11.2B CNY
Latest YoY
−4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−0.2% (−5.1 + 4.9)
Revenue +0.7%/yr
FY21 10.9B CNY
FY22 11.2B CNY
FY23 12.2B CNY
FY24 11.7B CNY
FY25 11.2B CNY
Net income −6.5%/yr
FY21 1.5B CNY
FY22 1.7B CNY
FY23 2.4B CNY
FY24 1.3B CNY
FY25 1.2B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +6.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.3 %

of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution −1.6 %

EBIT margin +4.1 %
Tax rate +0.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Publishing & Media Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601019

Peer Group

Publishing · 108 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Above median
Fair Value upside +63% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.9% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Publishing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.30× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 39
FUTURE6 · sector 0
PAST30 · sector 22
HEALTH0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND98 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Publishing & Media (601019) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.60 versus a price of ¥7.12, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601019?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Publishing & Media is ¥11.60 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.12.
What is the quality score of 601019?
Shandong Publishing & Media has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shandong Publishing & Media (601019)?
Shandong Publishing & Media reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601019?
The net profit margin of Shandong Publishing & Media is about 10.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shandong Publishing & Media pay a dividend?
Shandong Publishing & Media currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.92% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
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