China Life Insurance Company (2628) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$809B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$55.40 to HK$54.12 (−2.3%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −4.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 102% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$40.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$7.27 – HK$34.61 · fair‑value band HK$40.59 – HK$67.65 · the HK$26.80 price screens below the HK$54.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Life Insurance Company (2628) currently trades at HK$26.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$54.12, implying the stock looks roughly 101.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Life Insurance Company generated revenue of HK$342B at a net margin of 42.3%. Revenue declined 15.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$107B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$40.59 (bear case) to HK$67.65 (bull case); at HK$26.80, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at 102%, 2628 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$57.78) versus Asset-Based (HK$14.11). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments.
Full company description
China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments. It offers life, annuity, health, and accident insurance products to individuals and groups. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Life Insurance Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Life Insurance (Group) Company.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Life Insurance Company reported revenue of HK$605B in FY2025 versus HK$848B in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$154B in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 2628: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Gen-Z Gamer’s 3D-Model Startup Becomes China’s Latest AI Unicorn
- China Life Insurance Co Ltd (CILJF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong New Business ...
- China Life Insurance Co Ltd (CILJF) (Full Year 2025) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits ...
- Matthews China Fund's Strategic Moves: Spotlight on China Life Insurance Co Ltd
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥52.60 | ¥84.72 | +61% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation 0945 | HK$343.40 | HK$143.17 | -58% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | -5% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 302,500 KRW | 191,293 KRW | -37% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.48 | ¥57.51 | +89% |
| Prudential plc PUKN | 545.00 MXN | 499.36 MXN | -8% |
| New China Life Insurance Company 601336 | ¥58.83 | ¥99.92 | +70% |
| SBI Life Insurance Company SBILIFE | ₹1,830 | ₹293.11 | -84% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882B | 59.00 TWD | 107.71 TWD | +83% |
| KGI Financial Holding 2883 | 31.50 TWD | 24.33 TWD | -23% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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