China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$809B (≈ $103B) · ISIN CNE1000002L3
What is China Life Insurance Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 43% below our fair value of HK$53.76.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from HK$54.12 to HK$53.76 (−0.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$40.32). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$7.27 – HK$34.61 · fair‑value band HK$40.32 – HK$67.20 · the HK$30.90 price screens below the HK$53.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628) currently trades at HK$30.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$53.76, implying the stock looks roughly 42.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$57.78 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$30.90 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$14.11, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Life Insurance Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$342B at a net margin of 42.3%. Revenue declined 15.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$107B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$40.32 (bear case) to HK$67.20 (bull case); at HK$30.90, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 74%, 2628 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$2.82 per share, which is 5.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$57.78) versus Asset-Based (HK$14.11). Highest evidence: DDM Multi-Stage (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments.
Full company description
China Life Insurance Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a life insurance company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Life Insurance Business, Health Insurance Business, Accident Insurance Business, and Other Businesses segments. It offers life, annuity, health, and accident insurance products to individuals and groups. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Life Insurance Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Life Insurance (Group) Company.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Life Insurance Co Ltd reported revenue of 605B CNY in FY2025 versus 848B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 154B CNY in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥55.82 | ¥84.72 | +52% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.00 | HK$33.57 | −54% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$59.80 | C$38.80 | −35% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $116.52 | $74.34 | −36% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$90.25 | C$39.53 | −56% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $96.51 | $68.27 | −29% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | −5% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.20 | ¥57.51 | +90% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 301,000 KRW | 191,293 KRW | −36% |
| Power Corporation POW | C$94.43 | C$31.01 | −67% |
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