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Swire Properties Close Only (1972) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$117B (≈ $15.0B) · ISIN HK0000063609

What is Swire Properties Close Only really worth?

SP Swire Properties Close Only 1972 · HK
PriceHK$24.76
Fair ValueHK$5.12
Upside−79.3%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 384% above our fair value of HK$5.12.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.2% net margin
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 21 out of 100

For context

·4.73% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$3.46 – HK$7.41

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$18.75 to HK$5.12 (−72.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$7.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$3.46 to HK$7.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$26.09 HK$10.76 Fair Value HK$5.12 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$10.76 – HK$26.09 · fair‑value band HK$3.46 – HK$7.41 · the HK$24.76 price screens above the HK$5.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Swire Properties Close Only (1972) currently trades at HK$24.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.12, implying the stock looks roughly 383.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$31.36 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$24.76 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.34, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Swire Properties Close Only generated revenue of HK$16.6B at a net margin of −9.2%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.6%. Net debt stands at HK$39.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.46 (bear case) to HK$7.41 (bull case); at HK$24.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −79%, 1972 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$1.34 to HK$31.36). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$7.84 HK$12.81 HK$20.92 79
Growth DCF HK$8.31 HK$13.08 HK$20.42 77
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.43 HK$4.76 HK$7.54 73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$7.84 HK$12.81 HK$20.92 79
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.24 HK$2.71 HK$4.59 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.43 HK$4.76 HK$7.54 73
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.58 HK$5.27 HK$7.06 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.39 HK$6.64 HK$9.09 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$10.21 HK$13.96 HK$17.78 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$10.21 HK$14.15 HK$18.81 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT — HK$1.34 HK$2.97 61
EV/EBITDA — HK$1.60 HK$3.29 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$23.40 HK$31.36 HK$46.80 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$8.31 HK$13.08 HK$20.42 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.24 HK$2.97 HK$5.08 69

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$31.36) versus Multiples (HK$1.34). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 7.08 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.2100
Dividend yield 4.7%
Net margin −9.6% FY2025
Return on equity −0.6% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 57.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$16.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.2% 3y avg +4.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −19.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$7.3B FY2025
Net debt HK$39.5B FY2025 · ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments.

Full company description

Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments. It engages in the development, leasing, and management of commercial, retail, and residential properties; development and sale of residential apartments; and investment in and operation of hotels. The company also provides financial and real estate agency services. Swire Properties Limited was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Swire Pacific Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Swire Properties Close Only reported revenue of HK$16.0B in FY2025 versus HK$16.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.5B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$16.0B
Latest YoY
+11.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.6%
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −0.5%/yr
FY21 HK$16.4B
FY22 HK$13.9B
FY23 HK$15.5B
FY24 HK$14.4B
FY25 HK$16.0B
Net income
FY21 HK$7.1B
FY22 HK$8.0B
FY23 HK$2.6B
FY24 −HK$766M
FY25 −HK$1.5B

1972 screens 384% overvalued. Compare with CBRE Group →

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Swire Properties Close Only · Fair Value
HK$5.12 −384%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swire Properties Close Only Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1972

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 523 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −79% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.15× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.45× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 30
FUTURE21 · sector 11
PAST0 · sector 17
HEALTH93 · sector 84
DIVIDEND95 · sector 63

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CBRE Group CBRE $148.74 $69.47 −53%
Vonovia SE VNA €19.85 €36.67 +85%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €27.47 €25.46 −7%
KE Holdings BEKE $17.42 $6.57 −62%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $378.01 $290.25 −23%
CoStar Group CSGP $32.22 $4.64 −86%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$39.84 HK$34.95 −12%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.66 SGD 0.4900 SGD −82%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 4,040 CLP 4,571 CLP +13%
SAGAA SAGAA kr 170.50 kr 75.55 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Swire Properties Close Only (1972) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.12 versus a price of HK$24.76, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1972?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Properties Close Only is HK$5.12 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$24.76.
What is the quality score of 1972?
Swire Properties Close Only has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Swire Properties Close Only reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$16.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1972?
The net profit margin of Swire Properties Close Only is about −9.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Swire Properties Close Only pay a dividend?
Swire Properties Close Only currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.73% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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