Vonovia SE (VNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · DE · Market cap €18.3B · ISIN DE000A1ML7J1
What is Vonovia SE really worth?
A solid business, trading 48% below our fair value of €36.67.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −9.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€28.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €13.08 – €45.27 · fair‑value band €28.60 – €47.66 · the €19.15 price screens below the €36.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Vonovia SE (VNA) currently trades at €19.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €36.67, implying the stock looks roughly 47.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €39.65 per share, and 4 of the 10 models we run sit above the €19.15 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €4.89, and 6 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vonovia SE generated revenue of €5.9B at a net margin of 57.9%. Revenue declined 33.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.6%. Net debt stands at €40.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €28.60 (bear case) to €47.66 (bull case); at €19.15, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at 91%, VNA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €1.34 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (€39.65) versus DCF Models (€0.9700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments.
Full company description
Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments. It offers property management services; property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, multimedia, energy supply, metering, condominium administration, and insurance services. The company is also involved in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities to build new homes. In addition, it engages in construction of owner-occupied and rented apartments; sale of projects to investors; and construction of new properties on existing land held in the portfolio. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and incorporated in October 10th, 2017 is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vonovia SE reported revenue of €5.0B in FY2025 versus €3.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.7B in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 523 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBRE Group CBRE | $148.74 | $69.47 | −53% |
| Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX | €27.47 | €25.46 | −7% |
| KE Holdings BEKE | $17.42 | $6.57 | −62% |
| Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL | $378.01 | $290.25 | −23% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$24.84 | HK$5.12 | −79% |
| CoStar Group CSGP | $32.22 | $4.64 | −86% |
| China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 | HK$39.84 | HK$34.95 | −12% |
| CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI | 2.66 SGD | 0.4900 SGD | −82% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 4,040 CLP | 4,571 CLP | +13% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.50 | kr 75.55 | −56% |
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