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FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$36.2B (≈ $4.6B)

What is FWD Group Holdings Ltd really worth?

FG FWD Group Holdings Ltd 1828 · HK
PriceHK$33.80
Fair ValueHK$7.22
Upside−78.6%
Quality53/100

A solid business, but trading 368% above our fair value of HK$7.22.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −42.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin
!Trails peers (2/14)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Weak on past: 9 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100
Evidence: High Range HK$5.41 – HK$9.02

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$1.44 to HK$7.22 (+401.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$9.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (14 months)

HK$49.78 HK$27.62 Fair Value HK$7.22 Jul 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

14‑month range HK$27.62 – HK$49.78 · fair‑value band HK$5.41 – HK$9.02 · the HK$33.80 price screens above the HK$7.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) currently trades at HK$33.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.22, implying the stock looks roughly 368.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$6.28 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$33.80 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.69, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, FWD Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.0B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at HK$1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.41 (bear case) to HK$9.02 (bull case); at HK$33.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −79%, 1828 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0338 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$3.84 HK$3.74 HK$3.09 74
Gordon GGM HK$3.58 HK$7.45 HK$11.82 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.58 HK$6.28 HK$7.82 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.58 HK$7.45 HK$11.82 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.58 HK$6.28 HK$7.82 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.27 HK$1.69 HK$2.11 63
P/B Multiple HK$1.66 HK$2.21 HK$2.76 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.67 HK$3.58 HK$5.34 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$3.84 HK$3.74 HK$3.09 74

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$6.28) versus Multiples (HK$1.69). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 28.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.99 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.7
Dividend yield 1.4%
Net margin 3.5% FY2025
Return on equity 2.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 18.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$3.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −5.6% 3y avg +28.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +317%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$158M FY2025
Net debt HK$1.7B FY2025 · ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

FWD Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products and services. The company operates through Hong Kong & Macau, Thailand & Cambodia, Japan, Emerging Markets, and Corporate and Others segments.

Full company description

FWD Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products and services. The company operates through Hong Kong & Macau, Thailand & Cambodia, Japan, Emerging Markets, and Corporate and Others segments. It also offers accident and health insurance, and savings plans to customers, as well as distributes related investment and other financial service products. In addition, the company underwrites general insurance, as well as provides investment related products and services. The company was formerly known as PCGI Intermediate Holdings Limited and changed its name to FWD Group Holdings Limited in August 2021. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

FWD Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2025 versus $88.2B in FY2021, a compound −51.7%/yr. Reported net income was $166M in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$4.8B
Latest YoY
+20.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+28.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−42.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−33.5% (−34.9 + 1.4)
Revenue −51.7%/yr
FY21 $88.2B
FY22 $2.3B
FY23 $3.1B
FY24 $4.0B
FY25 $4.8B
Net income −42.9%/yr
FY21 $1.6B
FY22 −$219M
FY23 −$716M
FY24 $24.0M
FY25 $166M

1828 screens 368% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →

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FWD Group Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$7.22 −368%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FWD Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1828

Peer Group

Insurance - Life · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −79% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Above median
Revenue growth −6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.45× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.68× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.52× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 29.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 18
FUTURE0 · sector 43
PAST9 · sector 43
HEALTH78 · sector 84
DIVIDEND27 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥37.03 ¥49.98 +35%
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥55.82 ¥84.72 +52%
AIA Group 1299 HK$73.00 HK$33.57 −54%
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC C$59.80 C$38.80 −35%
Aflac Incorporated AFL $116.52 $74.34 −36%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$90.25 C$39.53 −56%
MetLife, Inc MET $96.51 $68.27 −29%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹412.15 ₹392.93 −5%
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 ¥30.20 ¥57.51 +90%
Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 301,000 KRW 191,293 KRW −36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.22 versus a price of HK$33.80, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1828?
Our model-based fair value for FWD Group Holdings Ltd is HK$7.22 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$33.80.
What is the quality score of 1828?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1828?
The net profit margin of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is about 5.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does FWD Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.37% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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