CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$150B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +4.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$49.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$29.02 – HK$65.30 · fair‑value band HK$33.13 – HK$49.94 · the HK$64.15 price screens above the HK$42.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038) currently trades at HK$64.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$42.74, implying the stock looks roughly 33.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$4.8B. Revenue declined 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.1%. Net debt stands at HK$23.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$33.13 (bear case) to HK$49.94 (bull case); at HK$64.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -33%, 1038 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$58.72) versus DCF Models (HK$5.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited, an infrastructure company, invests in, develops, and operates infrastructure businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United States.
Full company description
CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited, an infrastructure company, invests in, develops, and operates infrastructure businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United States. The company invests in energy infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, water infrastructure, waste management, waste-to-energy, household infrastructure, project management, and infrastructure-related businesses. It is also involved in the production and laying of asphalt; manufacture, distribution, and sale of cement; and property investment, securities investment, and waste management activities. The company was formerly known as Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Limited and changed its name to CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited in May 2017. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CK Infrastructure Holdings reported revenue of HK$4.4B in FY2025 versus HK$7.0B in FY2021, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$8.7B in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1038 screens 33% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $85.78 | $32.94 | -62% |
| The Southern Company SO | $92.52 | $58.81 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $123.19 | $74.89 | -39% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,886 ARS | -27% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹339.45 | ₹375.02 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 244.80 PLN | 167.29 PLN | -32% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹269.45 | ₹252.77 | -6% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.81 | ¥6.73 | -24% |
| CLP Holdings 0002 | HK$77.90 | HK$42.12 | -46% |
| Tenaga Nasional Berhad 5347 | 14.58 MYR | 14.72 MYR | +1% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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