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Xinyi Glass Holdings (0868) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$38.4B

XG Xinyi Glass Holdings 0868 · HK
PriceHK$8.79
Fair ValueHK$14.49
Upside+64.9%
Quality61/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.59% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: High Range HK$10.73 – HK$18.24 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$14.47 to HK$14.49 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −0.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 65% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$10.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$25.97 HK$5.43 Fair Value HK$14.49 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.43 – HK$25.97 · fair‑value band HK$10.73 – HK$18.24 · the HK$8.79 price screens below the HK$14.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Xinyi Glass Holdings (0868) currently trades at HK$8.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$14.49, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinyi Glass Holdings generated revenue of HK$20.8B at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at HK$2.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$10.73 (bear case) to HK$18.24 (bull case); at HK$8.79, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at 65%, 0868 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$12.32 HK$19.89 HK$32.04 80
Residual Income HK$7.60 HK$8.05 HK$8.81 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.20 HK$10.57 HK$14.69 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$12.23 HK$20.04 HK$32.63 38
Owner Earnings HK$8.86 HK$14.44 HK$23.45 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.20 HK$10.47 HK$14.58 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.25 HK$16.41 HK$23.75 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$11.16 HK$18.19 HK$25.82 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$8.72 HK$12.25 HK$16.97 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.84 HK$16.47 HK$24.25 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$11.43 HK$17.73 HK$25.89 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.67 HK$17.52 HK$23.70 54
Lynch FV HK$4.23 HK$6.04 HK$7.85 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.23 HK$6.04 HK$7.85 46
EPV HK$6.54 HK$7.56 HK$8.46 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$11.33 HK$15.10 HK$18.88 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.72 HK$6.29 HK$7.86 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.75 HK$11.67 HK$14.59 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.07 HK$13.30 HK$16.53 53
EV/EBITDA HK$10.19 HK$13.46 HK$16.72 54
EV/Revenue HK$4.79 HK$6.67 HK$8.56 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.63 HK$6.21 HK$9.27 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.32 HK$19.89 HK$32.04 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.20 HK$10.57 HK$14.69 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$7.60 HK$8.05 HK$8.81 76
ROIC Compounder HK$6.54 HK$7.56 HK$8.46 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$8.02 HK$11.45 HK$14.89 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$16.41) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$20.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) -3.8%
Net margin 13.1%
Return on equity 7.7%
Free cash flow HK$4.4B FY2025
P/E ratio 12.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 16.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300
Dividend yield 3.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +94.1%
Net debt HK$2.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 54
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells float, automobile, construction, and other glass products for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates through three segments: Float Glass, Automobile Glass, and Architectural Glass.

Full company description

Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells float, automobile, construction, and other glass products for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates through three segments: Float Glass, Automobile Glass, and Architectural Glass. It provides automobile rubber and plastic components; manufactures electronic glass, plastic products, and low-e products; trades in automobile glass; and engages in the research and trading of glass, as well as mining activities. The company also offers logistic and related services; supply chain services; sells solar power; automatic machines for solar glass factories and other related industries; and holds properties and car parks. It serves automobile glass manufacturing, wholesale, and distribution; automobile repairs and maintenance; car manufacturing; curtain wall design, engineering, and installing; architectural and furniture glass manufacturing; electronic, industrial, and household appliance manufacturing; and float glass manufacture, wholesale, and distribution companies. The company sells its products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xinyi Glass Holdings reported revenue of HK$23.2B in FY2025 versus HK$30.5B in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.0B in FY2025, compounding −28.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$23.2B
Latest YoY
−2.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.5%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.0%
Revenue −6.6%/yr
FY21 HK$30.5B
FY22 HK$25.7B
FY23 HK$26.8B
FY24 HK$23.8B
FY25 HK$23.2B
Net income −28.4%/yr
FY21 HK$11.6B
FY22 HK$5.1B
FY23 HK$5.4B
FY24 HK$3.6B
FY25 HK$3.0B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.9 pp

of which total revenue +8.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.7 pp

EBIT margin +0.4 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Xinyi Glass Holdings · Fair Value
HK$14.49 +65%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinyi Glass Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0868

Peer Group

Building Materials · 256 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +65% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.94× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.84× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.16× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 1
PAST 31 · sector 15
HEALTH 98 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 72 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,891 ₹4,718 -60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥43.31 ¥13.22 -69%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,308 ₹1,245 -62%
CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO 21.71 MXN 12.27 MXN -43%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥17.49 ¥26.14 +49%
Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM ₹421.00 ₹216.73 -49%
Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM ₹25,570 ₹8,215 -68%
TCC Group 1101B 43.15 TWD 9.76 TWD -77%
Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 57.60 TWD 13.98 TWD -76%
J.K. Cement Limited JKCEMENT ₹5,349 ₹2,184 -59%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinyi Glass Holdings (0868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$14.49 versus a price of HK$8.79, about +65% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0868?
Our model-based fair value for Xinyi Glass Holdings is HK$14.49 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$8.79.
What is the quality score of 0868?
Xinyi Glass Holdings has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xinyi Glass Holdings (0868)?
Xinyi Glass Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0868?
The net profit margin of Xinyi Glass Holdings is about 13.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xinyi Glass Holdings pay a dividend?
Xinyi Glass Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.59% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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