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Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$38.4B (≈ $4.9B) · ISIN KYG9828G1082

What is Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd really worth?

XG Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd 0868 · HK
PriceHK$9.27
Fair ValueHK$14.49
Upside+56.4%
Quality61/100

A solid business, trading 36% below our fair value of HK$14.49.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 13.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.5 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 48/100

For context

·3.94% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$10.73 – HK$18.24

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$14.47 to HK$14.49 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$10.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$25.97 HK$5.43 Fair Value HK$14.49 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.43 – HK$25.97 · fair‑value band HK$10.73 – HK$18.24 · the HK$9.27 price screens below the HK$14.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) currently trades at HK$9.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$14.49, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$16.41 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$9.27 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.04, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.8B at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at HK$2.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$10.73 (bear case) to HK$18.24 (bull case); at HK$9.27, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at 56%, 0868 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$12.23 HK$20.04 HK$32.63 76
EPV HK$6.54 HK$7.56 HK$8.46 74
Growth DCF HK$12.32 HK$19.89 HK$32.04 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$12.23 HK$20.04 HK$32.63 76
Owner Earnings HK$8.86 HK$14.44 HK$23.45 72
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.20 HK$10.47 HK$14.58 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.25 HK$16.41 HK$23.75 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$11.16 HK$18.19 HK$25.82 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$8.72 HK$12.25 HK$16.97 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.84 HK$16.47 HK$24.25 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$11.43 HK$17.73 HK$25.89 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.67 HK$17.52 HK$23.70 62
Lynch FV HK$4.23 HK$6.04 HK$7.85 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.23 HK$6.04 HK$7.85 55
EPV HK$6.54 HK$7.56 HK$8.46 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$11.33 HK$15.10 HK$18.88 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.72 HK$6.29 HK$7.86 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.75 HK$11.67 HK$14.59 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.07 HK$13.30 HK$16.53 66
EV/EBITDA HK$10.19 HK$13.46 HK$16.72 67
EV/Revenue HK$4.79 HK$6.67 HK$8.56 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.63 HK$6.21 HK$9.27 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.32 HK$19.89 HK$32.04 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.20 HK$10.57 HK$14.69 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$7.60 HK$8.05 HK$8.81 74
ROIC Compounder HK$6.54 HK$7.56 HK$8.46 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$8.02 HK$11.45 HK$14.89 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$16.41) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.58 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0
Dividend yield 3.9% payout 159%
Net margin 13.1% FY2025
Return on equity 7.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 16.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$20.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.8% 3y avg −3.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +94.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$4.4B FY2025
Net debt HK$2.3B FY2025 · ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 54
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells float, automobile, construction, and other glass products for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates through three segments: Float Glass, Automobile Glass, and Architectural Glass.

Full company description

Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells float, automobile, construction, and other glass products for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates through three segments: Float Glass, Automobile Glass, and Architectural Glass. It provides automobile rubber and plastic components; manufactures electronic glass, plastic products, and low-e products; trades in automobile glass; and engages in the research and trading of glass, as well as mining activities. The company also offers logistic and related services; supply chain services; sells solar power; automatic machines for solar glass factories and other related industries; and holds properties and car parks. It serves automobile glass manufacturing, wholesale, and distribution; automobile repairs and maintenance; car manufacturing; curtain wall design, engineering, and installing; architectural and furniture glass manufacturing; electronic, industrial, and household appliance manufacturing; and float glass manufacture, wholesale, and distribution companies. The company sells its products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 23.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$23.2B
Latest YoY
−2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−10.5% (−14.4 + 3.9)
Revenue −6.6%/yr
FY21 30.5B CNY
FY22 25.7B CNY
FY23 26.8B CNY
FY24 23.8B CNY
FY25 23.2B CNY
Net income −28.4%/yr
FY21 11.6B CNY
FY22 5.1B CNY
FY23 5.4B CNY
FY24 3.6B CNY
FY25 3.0B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.9 %

of which total revenue +8.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %

EBIT margin +0.4 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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HK$14.49 +36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0868

Peer Group

Building Materials · 257 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +56% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.94× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.84× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.16× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 17
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST31 · sector 15
HEALTH98 · sector 92
DIVIDEND79 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $96.05 $69.69 −27%
Holcim AG HOLN CHF 71.04 CHF 20.00 −72%
Vulcan Materials Company VMC $259.69 $114.48 −56%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,891 ₹4,718 −60%
Heidelberg Materials AG HEI €170.05 €167.96 −1%
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM $543.90 $215.31 −60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥40.56 ¥13.22 −67%
Amrize AG AMRZ CHF 37.65 CHF 29.67 −21%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,293 ₹1,245 −62%
CEMEX, S.A. CX $11.24 $11.31 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$14.49 versus a price of HK$9.27, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0868?
Our model-based fair value for Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is HK$14.49 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.27.
What is the quality score of 0868?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0868?
The net profit margin of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is about 13.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.94% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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