Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $38.3B · ISIN US9291601097
What is Vulcan Materials Company really worth?
Vulcan Materials Company
VMC · US
A solid business, but trading 127% above our fair value of $114.48.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −8.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($174.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($62.69 to $174.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $137.08 – $329.09 · fair‑value band $62.69 – $174.41 · the $260.23 price screens above the $114.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) currently trades at $260.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $114.48, implying the stock looks roughly 127.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $139.54 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $260.23 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $44.02, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vulcan Materials Company generated revenue of $8.1B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $62.69 (bear case) to $174.41 (bull case); at $260.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −56%, VMC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.50 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($139.54) versus Asset-Based ($44.02). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete.
Full company description
Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete. The company provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; aggregates that are used as ballast for construction and maintenance of railroad tracks; riprap and jetty stones for use in erosion control along roads and waterways; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vulcan Materials Company reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VMC screens 127% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Has Vulcan Materials (VMC) Run Too Far Above Fair Value?
- Vulcan (VMC) Up 1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
- Vulcan Materials Stock: Analyst Estimates & Ratings
- VMC Q2 Beat Keeps 2026 Outlook Intact Despite Higher Energy Costs
Peer Group
Building Materials · 257 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $96.05 | $69.69 | −27% |
| Holcim AG HOLN | CHF 71.04 | CHF 20.00 | −72% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,891 | ₹4,718 | −60% |
| Heidelberg Materials AG HEI | €170.05 | €167.96 | −1% |
| Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM | $543.90 | $215.31 | −60% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥40.56 | ¥13.22 | −67% |
| Amrize AG AMRZ | CHF 37.65 | CHF 29.67 | −21% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,293 | ₹1,245 | −62% |
| CEMEX, S.A. CX | $11.24 | $11.31 | +1% |
| James Hardie Industries plc JHX | A$41.54 | A$9.80 | −76% |
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