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Holcim AG (HOLN) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CH · Market cap CHF 41.0B · ISIN CH0012214059

What is Holcim AG really worth?

HA Holcim AG HOLN · SW
PriceCHF 73.84
Fair ValueCHF 40.00
Upside−45.8%
Quality61/100

A solid business, but trading 85% above our fair value of CHF 40.00.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 83.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.4 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100

For context

·2.30% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range CHF 40.00 – CHF 40.00

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from CHF 20.00 to CHF 40.00 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +1.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 40.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

CHF 80.17 CHF 17.47 Fair Value CHF 40.00 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range CHF 17.47 – CHF 80.17 · the CHF 73.84 price screens above the CHF 40.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Holcim AG (HOLN) currently trades at CHF 73.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 40.00, implying the stock looks roughly 84.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of CHF 38.81 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 73.84 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at CHF 5.81, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Holcim AG generated revenue of CHF 15.7B at a net margin of 83.8%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at CHF 4.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at −46%, HOLN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF CHF 26.82 CHF 38.73 CHF 60.80 79
Growth DCF CHF 28.23 CHF 39.79 CHF 59.57 78
Residual Income CHF 20.03 CHF 19.54 CHF 16.23 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF CHF 26.82 CHF 38.73 CHF 60.80 79
Owner Earnings CHF 4.24 CHF 7.29 CHF 12.94 74
5Y Revenue Exit CHF 24.99 CHF 38.10 CHF 57.15 72
5Y EBITDA Exit CHF 34.40 CHF 54.39 CHF 80.88 74
5Y P/E Exit CHF 12.86 CHF 17.10 CHF 22.25 72
10Y Revenue Exit CHF 24.68 CHF 34.53 CHF 45.08 67
10Y EBITDA Exit CHF 31.18 CHF 44.60 CHF 59.01 69
10Y P/E Exit CHF 18.11 CHF 21.54 CHF 24.59 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd CHF 4.76 CHF 5.81 CHF 6.54 67
EPV CHF 32.43 CHF 38.42 CHF 43.66 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM CHF 28.45 CHF 31.14 CHF 35.24 69
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 28.45 CHF 35.70 CHF 45.85 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple CHF 8.92 CHF 11.89 CHF 14.87 63
P/S Multiple CHF 8.92 CHF 11.89 CHF 14.87 58
P/B Multiple CHF 8.92 CHF 11.89 CHF 14.87 55
EV/EBIT CHF 45.11 CHF 61.32 CHF 77.54 66
EV/EBITDA CHF 46.35 CHF 62.97 CHF 79.60 67
EV/Revenue CHF 26.33 CHF 39.12 CHF 51.91 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) CHF 13.90 CHF 18.63 CHF 27.80 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF CHF 28.23 CHF 39.79 CHF 59.57 78
Rev-Margin DCF CHF 24.99 CHF 38.81 CHF 55.76 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income CHF 20.03 CHF 19.54 CHF 16.23 76
ROIC Compounder CHF 32.43 CHF 39.64 CHF 47.49 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E CHF 6.36 CHF 9.08 CHF 11.80 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (CHF 38.81) versus Earnings-Based (CHF 5.81). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 105.5
P/S ratio 2.60 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) CHF 0.7000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 105.5
Dividend yield 2.3%
Net margin 2.5% FY2025
Return on equity 2.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 12.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) CHF 15.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.6% 3y avg −18.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +10.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow CHF 1.7B FY2025
Net debt CHF 4.1B FY2025 · ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa.

Full company description

Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Holcim AG reported revenue of CHF 15.7B in FY2025 versus CHF 26.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 387M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
CHF 15.7B
Latest YoY
−40.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−18.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−26.0% (−28.3 + 2.3)
Revenue −12.5%/yr
FY21 CHF 26.8B
FY22 CHF 29.2B
FY23 CHF 27.0B
FY24 CHF 26.4B
FY25 CHF 15.7B
Net income −35.9%/yr
FY21 CHF 2.3B
FY22 CHF 3.3B
FY23 CHF 3.1B
FY24 CHF 2.9B
FY25 CHF 387M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.7 %

of which total revenue +0.0 % · buybacks/dilution −1.7 %

EBIT margin +4.8 %
Tax rate +0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

HOLN screens 85% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holcim AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOLN

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Building Materials · 257 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 84% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 105.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 29.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.43× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 17
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST8 · sector 15
HEALTH76 · sector 92
DIVIDEND46 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $96.05 $69.69 −27%
Vulcan Materials Company VMC $259.69 $114.48 −56%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,891 ₹4,718 −60%
Heidelberg Materials AG HEI €170.05 €167.96 −1%
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM $543.90 $215.31 −60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥40.56 ¥13.22 −67%
Amrize AG AMRZ CHF 37.65 CHF 29.67 −21%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,293 ₹1,245 −62%
CEMEX, S.A. CX $11.24 $11.31 +1%
James Hardie Industries plc JHX A$41.54 A$9.80 −76%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Holcim AG (HOLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 40.00 versus a price of CHF 73.84, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOLN?
Our model-based fair value for Holcim AG is CHF 40.00 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 73.84.
What is the quality score of HOLN?
Holcim AG has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Holcim AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 15.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HOLN?
The net profit margin of Holcim AG is about 83.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 83.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Holcim AG pay a dividend?
Holcim AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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