Hengbao Co (002104) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 8.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥1.66 to ¥2.09 (+25.9%) since Jul 22, 2026. Share price +2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.77 – ¥30.50 · fair‑value band ¥1.74 – ¥2.40 · the ¥10.30 price screens above the ¥2.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hengbao Co (002104) currently trades at ¥10.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.09, implying the stock looks roughly 79.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hengbao Co generated revenue of 745M CNY at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 49.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 617M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.74 (bear case) to ¥2.40 (bull case); at ¥10.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -80%, 002104 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.70) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hengbao Co.,Ltd. engages in the financial technology, Internet of Things, digital security and digital services in China and internationally. The company offers card payment and security services; blockchain finance, digital asset wallet, and supply chain financial platform; mobile communications and the internet of things, including sim, esim, and M2M card.
Full company description
Hengbao Co.,Ltd. engages in the financial technology, Internet of Things, digital security and digital services in China and internationally. The company offers card payment and security services; blockchain finance, digital asset wallet, and supply chain financial platform; mobile communications and the internet of things, including sim, esim, and M2M card. It also provides smart password key, electronic token, Bluetooth USBKEY, mobile smart terminal mobile phone shield, and other products; and tax security products, such as tax control disk, transmission disks, tax control Ukey, and PSAM cards. In addition, the company offers bluetooth secure reading and writing terminal, mPOS, mobile POS, and face recognition payment terminal; and one card cloud and mobile payment platform services. Further, it serves its products to financial industry, communications industry, mobile payment cloud platform, automotive, and composite material solutions. Hengbao Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Danyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hengbao Co reported revenue of ¥866M in FY2025 versus ¥960M in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥58.7M in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −4.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002104 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with GRG Banking Equipment Co →
Peer Group
Business Equipment & Supplies · 74 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Business Equipment & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRG Banking Equipment Co 002152 | ¥10.22 | ¥9.65 | -6% |
| Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc 603899 | ¥22.55 | ¥30.05 | +33% |
| XGD Inc 300130 | ¥19.30 | ¥19.69 | +2% |
| DOMS Industries Limited DOMS | ₹2,242 | ₹782.96 | -65% |
| Shaanxi Fenghuo Electronics Co 000561 | ¥7.72 | ¥1.75 | -77% |
| Shenzhen Comix Group 002301 | ¥7.44 | ¥3.01 | -60% |
| Shandong New Beiyang Information Technology Co 002376 | ¥6.72 | ¥2.10 | -69% |
| Cashway Fintech Co 603106 | ¥9.54 | ¥1.68 | -82% |
| Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co 603187 | ¥12.58 | ¥21.12 | +68% |
| Suzhou Alton Electrical & Mechanical Industry Co 301187 | ¥15.66 | ¥7.88 | -50% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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