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Hang Lung Group Ltd (0010) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$17.1B (≈ $2.2B) · ISIN HK0010000088

What is Hang Lung Group Ltd really worth?

HL Hang Lung Group Ltd 0010 · HK
PriceHK$12.58
Fair ValueHK$17.88
Upside+42.1%
Quality66/100

A solid business, trading 30% below our fair value of HK$17.88.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 13.1% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.5 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 52/100
!The models disagree: range HK$12.83 to HK$36.72
!Weak on past: 6 out of 100

For context

·6.84% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$12.83 – HK$36.72

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −7.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$12.83 to HK$36.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.69 HK$7.08 Fair Value HK$17.88 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$7.08 – HK$16.69 · fair‑value band HK$12.83 – HK$36.72 · the HK$12.58 price screens below the HK$17.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Hang Lung Group Ltd (0010) currently trades at HK$12.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.88, implying the stock looks roughly 29.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$48.66 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$12.58 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$12.38, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hang Lung Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$10.5B at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue declined 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. Net debt stands at HK$48.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$12.83 (bear case) to HK$36.72 (bull case); at HK$12.58, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 42%, 0010 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0947 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$50.55 HK$48.10 HK$36.43 76
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$13.51 HK$42.49 HK$75.71 71
FCF DCF HK$0.8000 HK$17.09 HK$41.16 70
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.8000 HK$17.09 HK$41.16 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.73 HK$22.80 HK$48.03 65
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$13.51 HK$42.49 HK$75.71 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6000 HK$18.60 HK$41.91 58
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$8.52 HK$32.10 HK$62.57 63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$7.90 HK$16.42 HK$26.05 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$7.90 HK$12.38 HK$17.14 66
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$12.83 HK$17.10 HK$21.38 58
P/B Multiple HK$12.83 HK$17.10 HK$21.38 55
EV/EBIT HK$43.01 HK$67.90 HK$92.79 64
EV/EBITDA HK$27.44 HK$47.14 HK$66.85 65
EV/Revenue HK$5.81 HK$21.88 HK$37.95 49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$36.31 HK$48.66 HK$72.62 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.55 HK$16.30 HK$36.96 69
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.73 HK$22.91 HK$45.33 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$50.55 HK$48.10 HK$36.43 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$48.66) versus Dividend Discount (HK$12.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.5
P/S ratio 1.64 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.00 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5
Dividend yield 6.8% payout 86.0%
Net margin 13.2% FY2025
Return on equity 1.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 59.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$10.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.1% 3y avg −1.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −6.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$4.0B FY2025
Net debt HK$48.6B FY2025 · ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Hang Lung Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a property developer in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through Property Leasing, Property Sales, and Hotels segments. The company develops properties for sale and lease, such as retail, office, residential and serviced houses and apartments.

Full company description

Hang Lung Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a property developer in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through Property Leasing, Property Sales, and Hotels segments. The company develops properties for sale and lease, such as retail, office, residential and serviced houses and apartments. It also operates hotels; and shopping malls, office and industrial premises, residential premises, and car parking bays. In addition, it offers property management; financial; apartment operation and management; management; property agency; and hotel investment services, as well as property investment services for rental income. Hang Lung Group Limited was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hang Lung Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$10.4B in FY2025 versus HK$10.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.4B in FY2025, compounding −14.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$10.4B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (31Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+6.2% (−0.6 + 6.8)
Revenue −1.2%/yr
FY21 HK$10.9B
FY22 HK$10.9B
FY23 HK$11.0B
FY24 HK$11.8B
FY25 HK$10.4B
Net income −14.7%/yr
FY21 HK$2.6B
FY22 HK$2.7B
FY23 HK$2.8B
FY24 HK$1.6B
FY25 HK$1.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −9.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share −2.5 %

of which total revenue −2.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −1.6 %
Tax rate −3.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Hang Lung Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$17.88 +30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hang Lung Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0010

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 523 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +42% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 59% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.51× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.17× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.64× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 5.82× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE89 · sector 30
FUTURE0 · sector 11
PAST6 · sector 17
HEALTH75 · sector 84
DIVIDEND100 · sector 63

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CBRE Group CBRE $148.74 $69.47 −53%
Vonovia SE VNA €19.85 €36.67 +85%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €27.47 €25.46 −7%
KE Holdings BEKE $17.42 $6.57 −62%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $378.01 $290.25 −23%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.84 HK$5.12 −79%
CoStar Group CSGP $32.22 $4.64 −86%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$39.84 HK$34.95 −12%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.66 SGD 0.4900 SGD −82%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 4,040 CLP 4,571 CLP +13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hang Lung Group Ltd (0010) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$17.88 versus a price of HK$12.58, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0010?
Our model-based fair value for Hang Lung Group Ltd is HK$17.88 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$12.58.
What is the quality score of 0010?
Hang Lung Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hang Lung Group Ltd (0010)?
Hang Lung Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0010?
The net profit margin of Hang Lung Group Ltd is about 13.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hang Lung Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Hang Lung Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.84% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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