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STOCK COMPARISON

Annaly Capital Management vs Orchid Island Capital: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Orchid Island Capital (ORC) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Annaly Capital Management as the less overvalued of the two: Annaly Capital Management trades at $22.83 versus a fair value of $19.41 (-15%), while Orchid Island Capital trades at $6.52 versus $5.33 (-18%).
Annaly Capital Management
NLY · USD · Financials
-15%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$22.83
Fair Value$19.41
Quality24/100
Orchid Island Capital
ORC · USD · Financials
-18%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$6.52
Fair Value$5.33
Quality38/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Annaly Capital ManagementOrchid Island Capital
Valuation
7.4×P/E (TTM)3.9×
6.51×P/S (TTM)4.99×
1.01×P/B0.98×
6.7×EV/EBITDA1.4×
32.03×PEG—
−15.0%Fair value upside−18.3%
12.3%Dividend yield22.1%
$2.80Dividend per share$1.44
Profitability
81%Operating margin93%
—EBIT margin trend (5Y)5.27×
15%Return on equity21%
2%Return on assets2%
Growth
49%Revenue growth (YoY)10%
17.3%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)—
35.2%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)69.9%
−3.9%Value creation/yr+1.4%
Balance & size
1.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)0.5×
1.98×Debt / equity0.01×
$16BMarket cap$1B
mixedGrowth qualitymixed

Orchid Island Capital leads: 2 to 9 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Annaly Capital Managementof which business quality 22 · market factors 60 Orchid Island Capitalof which business quality 38 · market factors 45
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
38
36
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
59
48
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
12
79
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
5
21
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
27
33
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
66
53
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
51
41
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
70
42
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
0
0

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyAnnaly Capital ManagementPrice $22.83Orchid Island CapitalPrice $6.52
DCF Modelsn/a+131%above the price$15.09
Dividend Discount+98%above the price$45.20+85%above the price$12.06
Multiples+84%above the price$42.08+48%above the price$9.66
Asset-Based-36%below the price$14.71-29%below the price$4.62
Growth DCFn/a+160%above the price$16.96
Economic Profit+7%close to the price$24.39+2%close to the price$6.67
Minimum-36%below the price$14.71-29%below the price$4.62
Maximum+98%above the price$45.20+160%above the price$16.96
Median+46%above the price$33.23+67%above the price$10.86
Geometric mean+26%above the price$28.74+51%above the price$9.86

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Annaly Capital Management: 1 of 8 models see the stock below the current price.

Orchid Island Capital: 3 of 15 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Annaly Capital Management
Bear $14.56Fair Value $19.41Bull $24.27
$22.83 = current price (white tick)
Orchid Island Capital
Bear $4.86Fair Value $5.33Bull $6.24
$6.52 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Annaly Capital Management · Financials

Quality score24 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-15% · below median

Orchid Island Capital · Financials

Quality score38 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-18% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Annaly Capital Management as the less overvalued of the two: Annaly Capital Management trades at $22.83 versus a fair value of $19.41 (-15%), while Orchid Island Capital trades at $6.52 versus $5.33 (-18%).

Orchid Island Capital has the higher quality score (38/100).

See the full analysis →
Annaly Capital Management · Orchid Island Capital

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.