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STOCK COMPARISON

American Financial Group vs Progressive: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how American Financial Group (AFG) and Progressive (PGR) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Progressive as the less overvalued of the two: American Financial Group trades at $144 versus a fair value of $101 (-30%), while Progressive trades at $224 versus $160 (-28%).
American Financial Group
AFG · USD · Financials
-30%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$144
Fair Value$101
Quality56/100
Progressive
PGR · USD · Financials
-28%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$224
Fair Value$160
Quality65/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

American Financial GroupProgressive
Valuation
13.1×P/E (TTM)11.7×
1.46×P/S (TTM)1.50×
2.41×P/B4.43×
8.9×EV/EBITDA9.3×
2.30×PEG35.19×
−30.1%Fair value upside−28.4%
2.4%Dividend yield0.2%
$3.44Dividend per share$0.40
Profitability
15%Operating margin16%
2.18×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.96×
19%Return on equity38%
2%Return on assets8%
Growth
0%Revenue growth (YoY)9%
6.5%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)20.9%
7.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)15.5%
+2.9%Value creation/yr+23.4%
Balance & size
13.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)51.2×
0.38×Debt / equity0.23×
$12BMarket cap$134B
mixedGrowth qualitymixed

Progressive leads: 6 to 9 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

American Financial Groupof which business quality 53 · market factors 70 Progressiveof which business quality 64 · market factors 59
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
35
61
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
42
64
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
81
81
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
18
54
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
72
37
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
91
87
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
55
46
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
73
50
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
88
81

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyAmerican Financial GroupPrice $144ProgressivePrice $224
Dividend Discount-24%below the price$109n/a
Multiples-26%below the price$106-27%below the price$163
Asset-Based-73%below the price$38.87-84%below the price$34.90
Economic Profit-45%below the price$79.94-6%close to the price$211
Minimum-73%below the price$38.87-84%below the price$34.90
Maximum-24%below the price$109-6%close to the price$211
Median-35%below the price$93.21-27%below the price$163
Geometric mean-46%below the price$77.50-53%below the price$106

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

American Financial Group: 6 of 6 models see the stock below the current price.

Progressive: 3 of 4 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

American Financial Group
Bear $75.69Fair Value $101Bull $126
$144 = current price (white tick)
Progressive
Bear $120Fair Value $160Bull $200
$224 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

American Financial Group · Financials

Quality score56 · above median
Fair value upside-30% · below median

Progressive · Financials

Quality score65 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-28% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Progressive as the less overvalued of the two: American Financial Group trades at $144 versus a fair value of $101 (-30%), while Progressive trades at $224 versus $160 (-28%).

Progressive has the higher quality score (65/100).

See the full analysis →
American Financial Group · Progressive

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.