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STOCK COMPARISON

Cnooc vs Magnolia Oil & Gas: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Cnooc (0883) and Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Cnooc as the more attractively valued of the two: Cnooc trades at HK$25.06 versus a fair value of HK$26.54 (+6%), while Magnolia Oil & Gas trades at $27.21 versus $22.92 (-16%).
Cnooc
0883.HK · HKD · Energy
+6%
upside to fair value
fairly valued
PriceHK$25.06
Fair ValueHK$26.54
Quality63/100
Magnolia Oil & Gas
MGY · USD · Energy
-16%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$27.21
Fair Value$22.92
Quality66/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

CnoocMagnolia Oil & Gas
Valuation
7.7×P/E (TTM)15.6×
2.67×P/S (TTM)3.93×
1.35×P/B2.68×
4.3×EV/EBITDA6.0×
0.16×PEG
+5.9%Fair value upside−15.8%
4.6%Dividend yield2.3%
HK$1.15Dividend per share$0.63
Profitability
45%Operating margin36%
2.05×EBIT margin trend (5Y)
15%Return on equity16%
9%Return on assets9%
Growth
9%Revenue growth (YoY)2%
-3.7%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-8.2%
20.0%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)19.4%
+17.4%Value creation/yr+11.2%
Balance & size
65.7×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)20.3×
0.07×Debt / equity0.20×
$139BMarket cap$5B
weakGrowth qualityweak

Cnooc leads: 12 to 0 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Cnoocof which business quality 64 · market factors 63 Magnolia Oil & Gasof which business quality 67 · market factors 51
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
55
59
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
36
23
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
76
80
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
84
84
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
40
54
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
83
72
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
47
36
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
69
52
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
79
86

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyCnoocPrice HK$25.06Magnolia Oil & GasPrice $27.21
DCF Models+65%above the priceHK$41.36+26%above the price$34.26
Earnings-Based+11%close to the priceHK$27.87-23%below the price$20.95
Dividend Discount+1%close to the priceHK$25.25-63%below the price$9.98
Multiples+33%above the priceHK$33.44-23%below the price$20.97
Asset-Based-52%below the priceHK$12.08-74%below the price$7.03
Growth DCF+33%above the priceHK$33.29+16%above the price$31.65
Economic Profit+30%above the priceHK$32.53-26%below the price$20.18
Growth Earnings+34%above the priceHK$33.610%close to the price$27.27
Minimum-52%below the priceHK$12.08-74%below the price$7.03
Maximum+65%above the priceHK$41.36+26%above the price$34.26
Median+31%above the priceHK$32.91-23%below the price$20.96
Geometric mean+13%close to the priceHK$28.44-29%below the price$19.19

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Cnooc: 10 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Magnolia Oil & Gas: 16 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Cnooc
Bear HK$19.94Fair Value HK$26.54Bull HK$33.98
HK$25.06 = current price (white tick)
Magnolia Oil & Gas
Bear $16.98Fair Value $22.92Bull $35.46
$27.21 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Cnooc · Energy

Quality score63 · Top 25%
Fair value upside+6% · above median

Magnolia Oil & Gas · Energy

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-16% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Cnooc as the more attractively valued of the two: Cnooc trades at HK$25.06 versus a fair value of HK$26.54 (+6%), while Magnolia Oil & Gas trades at $27.21 versus $22.92 (-16%).

Magnolia Oil & Gas has the higher quality score (66/100).

See the full analysis →

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.