The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $7.5B · ISIN US4108671052
What is The Hanover Insurance Group Inc really worth?
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc
THG · US
A solid business, but trading 31% above our fair value of $176.90.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +1.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($221.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.17 – $232.63 · fair‑value band $132.67 – $221.13 · the $231.68 price screens above the $176.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) currently trades at $231.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $176.90, implying the stock looks roughly 31.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $156.97 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $231.68 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $68.39, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated revenue of $6.7B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. Net debt stands at $95.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $132.67 (bear case) to $221.13 (bull case); at $231.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −24%, THG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $10.78 per share, which is 6.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($156.97) versus Asset-Based ($68.39). Highest evidence: Residual Income (64).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates in four segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other.
Full company description
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates in four segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other. The company offers commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation, and other core commercial coverage; and professional and executive lines, marine, and surety and other, as well as specialty property and casualty products comprising Hanover program business, excess and surplus business, Hanover specialty industrial, and specialty general liability business coverage. It also provides personal automobile; and homeowners and other personal lines, including residences and personal property, liability claims, personal umbrella, inland marine, fire, personal watercraft, personal cyber, and other miscellaneous coverages. In addition, the company offers insurance products for collector cars, motorcycles, off-road vehicles, condominiums, valuable items, business owners, international, and management and professional liability; and for the construction, cultural and educational institutions, financial intuitions, healthcare, human services, life sciences, manufacturing, professional services, real estate, retail, technology, and wholesale and distribution industries. It markets its products and services through independent agents and brokers. The company was formerly known as Allmerica Financial Corp. and changed its name to The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. in December 2005. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $5.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $663M in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.2 % · buybacks/dilution +2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
THG screens 31% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hanover Insurance declares $0.95 dividend
- The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.95 Per Common Share
- Hanover Insurance (THG) Down 1.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 117 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $217.65 | $160.25 | −26% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $338.31 | $234.73 | −31% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $369.90 | $274.42 | −26% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $260.58 | $316.11 | +21% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.14 | ¥11.61 | +63% |
| PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 | HK$15.25 | HK$22.27 | +46% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$274.14 | C$167.46 | −39% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,281 | C$2,926 | +28% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$22.62 | A$14.20 | −37% |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | $171.97 | $166.34 | −3% |
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