The Travelers Companies, Inc (TRV) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $71.8B
The Travelers Companies, Inc
TRV · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $384.42 to $274.42 (−28.6%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +9.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($343.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $131.36 – $397.22 · fair‑value band $205.82 – $343.03 · the $370.00 price screens above the $274.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Travelers Companies, Inc (TRV) currently trades at $370.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $274.42, implying the stock looks roughly 25.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Travelers Companies, Inc generated revenue of $48.9B at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.3%. Net debt stands at $8.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $205.82 (bear case) to $343.03 (bull case); at $370.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -26%, TRV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($254.68) versus Asset-Based ($103.64). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Full company description
The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The Business Insurance segment offers workers' compensation, commercial automobile and property, general liability, commercial multi-peril, employers' liability, public and product liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, commercial property and automobile, onshore and offshore energy, construction, terrorism, personal accident, and kidnap and ransom insurance products. This segment operates through select accounts, which serve small businesses; middle accounts that serve mid-sized businesses; national accounts, which serve large companies; and national property and others that serve large and mid-sized customers, commercial trucking industry, and agricultural businesses, as well as markets and distributes its products through brokers, wholesale agents, and program managers. The Bond & Specialty Insurance segment provides surety, fidelity, management and professional liability, and other property and casualty coverages and related risk management services through independent agencies and brokers. The Personal Insurance segment offers property and casualty insurance covering personal risks, primarily automobile and homeowners' insurance to individuals. The Travelers Companies, Inc. was founded in 1853 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Travelers Companies, Inc reported revenue of $48.8B in FY2025 versus $34.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $6.3B in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +3.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TRV screens 26% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Travelers and National Trust for Historic Preservation Bring National Resilience Campaign to Minnesota
- Travelers (TRV) Completes Nationwide Synergy Rollout For Life Sciences Liability Coverage
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Comfort Systems, The Goldman Sachs, Vertiv, Seagate and The Travelers
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $207.37 | $160.25 | -23% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $343.33 | $234.73 | -32% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $255.84 | $316.11 | +24% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥6.98 | ¥11.61 | +66% |
| PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 | HK$15.52 | HK$22.28 | +44% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$274.14 | C$167.46 | -39% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,293 | C$2,291 | -0% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 628,000 KRW | 698,407 KRW | +11% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 72.14 PLN | 73.80 PLN | +2% |
| Gjensidige Forsikring ASA GJF | kr 281.00 | kr 114.01 | -59% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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