Sterling Construction Company Inc (STRL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $19.7B · ISIN US8592411016
What is Sterling Construction Company Inc really worth?
Sterling Construction Company Inc
STRL · US
A solid business, but trading 132% above our fair value of $198.57.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price −15.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($282.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($137.30 to $282.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.83 – $993.74 · fair‑value band $137.30 – $282.01 · the $460.03 price screens above the $198.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Sterling Construction Company Inc (STRL) currently trades at $460.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $198.57, implying the stock looks roughly 131.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $279.11 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $460.03 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.20, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sterling Construction Company Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue grew 91.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $40.8M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $137.30 (bear case) to $282.01 (bull case); at $460.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 141% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −57%, STRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.28 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($279.11) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7100). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. engages in the provision of e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building Solutions.
Full company description
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. engages in the provision of e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building Solutions. The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment provides site development services for the blue-chip end users in the e-commerce distribution center, data center, manufacturing, warehousing, and power generation sectors. Its Transportation Solutions segment is involved in the development of infrastructure and rehabilitation projects for highways, roads, bridges, airports, ports, rail, and storm drainage systems for the departments of transportation, regional transit, airport, port, water, and railroads authorities. The Building Solutions segment offers residential and commercial concrete foundations for single-family and multi-family homes, parking structures, elevated slabs, and other concrete work for developers and general contractors, as well as plumbing and surveys services for residential builds. It operates in the United States, primarily across the Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Rocky Mountain regions, and the Pacific Islands. The company was formerly known as Sterling Construction Company, Inc. and changed its name to Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. in June 2022. Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sterling Construction Company Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $290M in FY2025, compounding +46.7%/yr from FY2021.
STRL screens 132% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Down 15.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
- Can Sterling's CEC Bet Supercharge Its Mission-Critical Ambitions?
- Will Sterling's Building Solutions Weather Housing Headwinds in 2026?
- Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Following Its Pullback Is The Undervalued Narrative Still Intact
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
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