HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €34.3B · ISIN DE0006070006
What is HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft really worth?
A solid business, but trading 109% above our fair value of €203.87.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −5.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€254.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €39.30 – €549.00 · fair‑value band €152.90 – €254.84 · the €426.00 price screens above the €203.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) currently trades at €426.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €203.87, implying the stock looks roughly 108.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €285.07 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €426.00 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €79.87, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft generated revenue of €38.7B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 64.1%. Net debt stands at €2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €152.90 (bear case) to €254.84 (bull case); at €426.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 184% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −52%, HOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €2.78 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€285.07) versus Asset-Based (€11.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft engages in the construction business worldwide. It operates under Turner, CIMIC, Engineering and construction, and Abertis segment.
Full company description
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft engages in the construction business worldwide. It operates under Turner, CIMIC, Engineering and construction, and Abertis segment. The company provides solutions for large-scale building, civil engineering and industrial projects, including engineering, project management, supply chain, and procurement services to the execution of civil works and industrial and infrastructure maintenance services, as well as construction management services. It also engages in the engineering and construction businesses for public and private clients; infrastructure investment activities; and industrial, energy, natural resources, and civil infrastructure business. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Essen, Germany. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is a subsidiary of ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €38.2B in FY2025 versus €21.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was €902M in FY2025, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.8 % · buybacks/dilution −1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HOT screens 109% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hochtief to acquire German power transmission firm Autmatec
- Hochtief AG (HOCFF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Orders and Raised Guidance ...
- HOCHTIEF's (ETR:HOT) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings
- HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HOT) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To €414
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
| Sterling Infrastructure, Inc STRL | $460.03 | $198.57 | −57% |
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