Ferrovial SE (FER) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $46.1B · ISIN NL0015001FS8
What is Ferrovial SE really worth?
Ferrovial SE
FER · US
A solid business, but trading 139% above our fair value of $24.34.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $24.13 to $24.34 (+0.9%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price −12.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($31.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($17.13 to $31.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.08 – $73.66 · fair‑value band $17.13 – $31.25 · the $58.10 price screens above the $24.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ferrovial SE (FER) currently trades at $58.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.34, implying the stock looks roughly 138.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.82 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $58.10 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.02, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ferrovial SE generated revenue of $9.6B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.3%. Net debt stands at $6.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.13 (bear case) to $31.25 (bull case); at $58.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −58%, FER screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8797 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($22.82) versus Dividend Discount ($3.02). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ferrovial N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, construction, and operation of highways and airports in the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Construction, Highways, Airports, and Energy.
Full company description
Ferrovial N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, construction, and operation of highways and airports in the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Construction, Highways, Airports, and Energy. The company is involved in the development, financing, and operation of toll road infrastructure and construction activities, including the design and construction of public and private works; construction of public infrastructures; and development, financing, investing, and operation of airports. It engages in the development and construction of energy transmission and renewable generation energy infrastructure, as well as rendering of services regarding energy efficiency; and operation of waste management plants. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ferrovial SE reported revenue of €9.6B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was €888M in FY2025, compounding −7.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −0.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FER screens 139% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ferrovial (BME:FER) Stock Looks Pricey On Its 147% Five Year Run
- Ferrovial selected to deliver Tennessee's I-24 Choice Lanes
- Ferrovial NV (FER) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amid ...
- Ferrovial Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
| Sterling Infrastructure, Inc STRL | $460.03 | $198.57 | −57% |
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