Serco Group plc (SECCF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.2B
What is Serco Group plc really worth?
Serco Group plc
SECCF · US
A solid business, trading 30% below our fair value of $4.56.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $4.54 to $4.56 (+0.4%) since Aug 13, 2026.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.17 to $6.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9836 – $4.32 · fair‑value band $3.17 – $6.14 · the $3.19 price screens below the $4.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Serco Group plc (SECCF) currently trades at $3.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.56, implying the stock looks roughly 30.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.39 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $3.19 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6000, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Serco Group plc generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.0%. Net debt stands at $710M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.17 (bear case) to $6.14 (bull case); at $3.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 43%, SECCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0981 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($5.39) versus Asset-Based ($0.6000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services.
Full company description
Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services. The company also provides administrative and back office, asylum seeker accommodation or passenger transport services; and supports in the decarbonization journeys of customers. It serves the United Kingdom and Canadian governments, devolved authorities, and other public sector customers; and federal and civilian agencies, and various state and municipal governments in citizen services, defense, health and other facilities management, justice and immigration, and transport sectors. Serco Group plc was founded in 1929 and is based in Hook, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Serco Group plc reported revenue of £5.0B in FY2025 versus £4.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was £146M in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 248 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $204.15 | $95.19 | −53% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $34.55 | $32.24 | −7% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$142.85 | C$70.40 | −51% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $32.76 | $28.59 | −13% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $91.05 | $68.98 | −24% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$119.68 | C$68.30 | −43% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$19.47 | A$17.27 | −11% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $74.43 | $33.62 | −55% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €68.88 | €101.27 | +47% |
| Aramark ARMK | $59.08 | $13.18 | −78% |
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