Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $30.5M

A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide ($3.23 to $12.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.43 – $24.58 · fair‑value band $3.23 – $12.94 · the $10.20 price screens above the $6.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) currently trades at $10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.86, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $5.7M. Revenue declined 38.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -15.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.23 (bear case) to $12.94 (bull case); at $10.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -33%, RAND screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($65.70) versus Asset-Based ($11.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market investments. Within venture capital, it specializing in early to late-stage private businesses.

Full company description

Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market investments. Within venture capital, it specializing in early to late-stage private businesses. It does not prefer to invest in real estate sector. It prefers to invest in software, professional services, manufacturing, consumer, healthcare, automotive and public d stocks. It prefers to invest in East or Midwest U.S. operations sectors. It typically invests between $0.75 million and $5 million with initial target size of $1.5 million. It seeks to invest in companies having more than $10 million in revenue or having excess of $1.5 million and up to $5 million in EBITDA. It prefers to be a minority stake and seeks to take a Board seat in its portfolio companies. It typically holds its investments for a period up to five years.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Rand Capital Corporation reported revenue of $4.5M in FY2025 versus $17.2M in FY2021, a compound −28.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.0M in FY2025.

RAND screens 33% overvalued. Compare with BlackRock, Inc →

Peer Group

Asset Management · 690 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.