Rand Capital Corp (RAND) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $30.5M · ISIN US7521852076
What is Rand Capital Corp really worth?
Rand Capital Corp
RAND · US
A solid business, but trading 50% above our fair value of $6.86.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −0.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.23 to $12.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.43 – $24.58 · fair‑value band $3.23 – $12.94 · the $10.29 price screens above the $6.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Rand Capital Corp (RAND) currently trades at $10.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.86, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $5.7M. Revenue declined 38.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −15.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.23 (bear case) to $12.94 (bull case); at $10.29, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −33%, RAND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($65.70) versus Asset-Based ($11.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market investments. Within venture capital, it specializing in early to late-stage private businesses.
Full company description
Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market investments. Within venture capital, it specializing in early to late-stage private businesses. It does not prefer to invest in real estate sector. It prefers to invest in software, professional services, manufacturing, consumer, healthcare, automotive and public d stocks. It prefers to invest in East or Midwest U.S. operations sectors. It typically invests between $0.75 million and $5 million with initial target size of $1.5 million. It seeks to invest in companies having more than $10 million in revenue or having excess of $1.5 million and up to $5 million in EBITDA. It prefers to be a minority stake and seeks to take a Board seat in its portfolio companies. It typically holds its investments for a period up to five years.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rand Capital Corp reported revenue of $4.5M in FY2025 versus $17.2M in FY2021, a compound −28.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.0M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +8.2 % · buybacks/dilution −13.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
RAND screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 697 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $142.39 | $52.88 | −63% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 417.20 | kr 824.66 | +98% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$55.74 | C$10.67 | −81% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $108.68 | $19.97 | −82% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $135.04 | $101.04 | −25% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $193.33 | $138.33 | −28% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $559.32 | $515.24 | −8% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $143.10 | $30.88 | −78% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $186.79 | $122.02 | −35% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $181.10 | $142.42 | −21% |
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