Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $34.0B · ISIN US6658591044
What is Northern Trust Corporation really worth?
Northern Trust Corporation
NTRS · US
A solid business, but trading 54% above our fair value of $122.02.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($157.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $58.19 – $191.47 · fair‑value band $91.52 – $157.34 · the $187.45 price screens above the $122.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) currently trades at $187.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.02, implying the stock looks roughly 53.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $520.98 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $187.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $46.92, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Trust Corporation generated revenue of $8.4B at a net margin of 22.4%. Revenue grew 13.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $44.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $91.52 (bear case) to $157.34 (bull case); at $187.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −35%, NTRS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.35 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($520.98) versus Asset-Based ($46.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management.
Full company description
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical, employee benefit, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, banking, and cash management services. It serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage; and private and business banking services. This segment also provides global custody; fiduciary; family office consulting; and technology solutions to high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. In addition, it offers asset management, and related services and other products comprising active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes which includes private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. Further, the company provides overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northern Trust Corporation reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $6.5B in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.8 % · buybacks/dilution +1.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NTRS screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Northern Trust (NTRS) Ties Digital Asset Push To New Institutional Partnership
- USB or NTRS: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Northern Trust and CSC Deepen Digital Asset Collaboration Through New Innovation Partnership
- Citizens Private Wealth Recruits $1 Billion Financial Advisory Duo From Northern Trust
Peer Group
Asset Management · 697 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $142.39 | $52.88 | −63% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 417.20 | kr 824.66 | +98% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$55.74 | C$10.67 | −81% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $108.68 | $19.97 | −82% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $135.04 | $101.04 | −25% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $193.33 | $138.33 | −28% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $559.32 | $515.24 | −8% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $143.10 | $30.88 | −78% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $181.10 | $142.42 | −21% |
| T. Rowe Price Group TROW | $111.24 | $126.63 | +14% |
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