Ares Management LP (ARES) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ares Management LP stock $103, price $124, upside -16.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.67 – $185.53 · fair‑value band $30.69 – $156.71 · the $123.70 price screens above the $103.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Ares Management Corporation operates as an alternative asset manager. Its Direct Lending Group segment provides financing solutions to small-to-medium sized companies.
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The company's Private Equity Group segment specializes in early venture, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, recapitalization, growth capital, middle market, mezzanine, distressed and growth buyouts. The firm seeks to invest in healthcare, services, energy, industrials and consumer.
The firm seeks to takes majority, minority and shared-control investments primarily in under-capitalized companies in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Southeast Asia and Australia.
Its Real Estate Group segment invests in new developments and the repositioning of assets, with a focus on control or majority-control investments; and originates and invests in a range of self-originated financing opportunities for middle-market owners and operators of commercial real estate.
The firm prefers to invest between $1 million and $500 million in companies having EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million and debt investment value between $10 million and $100 million.
Ares Management Corporation was founded in 1997 and is based in Los Angeles, California with additional offices in North America, Europe and Asia.
Stock analysis
Ares Management LP (ARES) currently trades at $123.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.04, 16.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $103.04 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $123.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $19.38, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $30.69 (bear) to $156.71 (bull), the price of $123.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ares Management LP reported revenue of $6.5B in FY2025 versus $4.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was $527M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $38.6B Large · P/E ratio 53.6 · P/S ratio 4.93 · EPS (TTM) $2.17 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −17%, ARES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.69Fair Value $103.04Bull$156.71
Price $123.70 · Upside -16.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+66.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.0% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.3% vs 18.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.4% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Credit scale and organization capital give Ares a moderate moat while typical asset-manager competition and limited innovation signals remain the main weaknesses.
Main risk: Redemption headwinds in private credit could reduce inflows and limit fee-earning assets in the core credit business.
Ares has just raised over four billion dollars for its first global structured solutions fund, far exceeding the initial target and underscoring demand for flexible capital solutions in private equity secondaries. This expansion comes even as private credit faces redemption headwinds, while our models see the business as overvalued. Will new strategies like this drive durable fee growth across asset classes or will core credit fundraising set the pace going forward?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 669 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.9% · Above median
Return on assets3.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)25.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)53.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.02× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ares Management LP (ARES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $103.04 versus a price of $123.70, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARES?
Our model-based fair value for Ares Management LP is $103.04 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $123.70.
What is the quality score of ARES?
Ares Management LP has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $103.04 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.69, optimistic scenario $156.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ares Management LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $103.04, about −17% upside versus a price of $123.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.69, optimistic scenario $156.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Ares Management LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Ares Management LP pay a dividend?
Ares Management LP currently shows a dividend yield of 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ares Management LP (ARES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ares Management LP would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.7 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARES use?
Our models discount Ares Management LP at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ares Management LP that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ares Management LP (ARES) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ares Management LP grew +29.7 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ares Management LP (ARES) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ares Management LP (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.41 %: that much free cash flow Ares Management LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ares Management LP it is $103.04 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $123.70. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ares Management LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, ARES trades above its calculated fair value: price $123.70, fair value $103.04, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARES?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($123.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($103.04). For Ares Management LP the two are $20.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ares Management LP worth?
The market values Ares Management LP at about $38.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $123.70; our models calculate a fair value of $103.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARES?
Our models span a range for Ares Management LP: cautious scenario $30.69, base $103.04, optimistic $156.71 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $123.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARES?
Ares Management LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $103.04 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 24.7 (reported for FY2025: 50.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 18.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 9.0, P/S 15.2, EV/EBITDA 69.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ARES?
The PEG ratio of Ares Management LP is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ares Management LP (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 2.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARES from its 52-week high?
Ares Management LP trades at $123.70, about 27% below its 52-week high of $170.37 and 33% above the low of $93.27 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $103.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ares Management LP?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ares Management LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $123.70, calculated fair value $103.04 (−17%), Quality Score 50/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARES calculated?
We run Ares Management LP through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $103.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Ares Management LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $123.70. Our model-based fair value is $103.04, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ares Management LP right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($30.69 to $156.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Ares Management LP (ARES) come from?
Earnings per share at Ares Management LP grew +13.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin +10.3 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ares Management LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The market capitalisation of Ares Management LP is $38.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ares Management LP is 4.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Earnings per share at Ares Management LP are $2.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The dividend yield of Ares Management LP is 4.0% (payout 110%, on adjusted earnings, reported 228%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The net margin of Ares Management LP is 12.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ares Management LP is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ares Management LP is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ares Management LP (ARES)?
The operating margin of Ares Management LP is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Revenue at Ares Management LP is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ares Management LP (ARES)?
Earnings per share at Ares Management LP are growing +6.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ares Management LP (ARES) carry?
The net debt of Ares Management LP is $13.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026