PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.3B · ISIN US70932M1071
What is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc really worth?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc
PFSI · US
Below-average quality, trading 42% below our fair value of $125.45.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −4.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($94.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.89 – $158.38 · fair‑value band $94.09 – $156.81 · the $73.23 price screens below the $125.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) currently trades at $73.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.45, implying the stock looks roughly 41.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $249.07 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $73.23 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.22, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue declined 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at $22.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $94.09 (bear case) to $156.81 (bull case); at $73.23, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 71%, PFSI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.58 per share, which is 4.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($249.07) versus Dividend Discount ($18.22). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing. The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans.
Full company description
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing. The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans. This segment also sources residential conventional and government-insured or guaranteed mortgage loans through correspondent production, consumer direct lending, and broker direct lending. The Servicing segment performs loan administration, collection, and default management activities, including the collection and remittance of loan payments; responds to customer inquiries; provides accounting for principal and interest; holds custodial funds for the payment of property taxes and insurance premiums; offers counseling for delinquent borrowers; and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions, as well as administers loss mitigation activities comprising modification and forbearance programs, and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $501M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.4 % · buybacks/dilution +4.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch PFSI: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PennyMac Financial Services Inc's Dividend Analysis
- Reminder - PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI) Goes Ex-Dividend Soon
Peer Group
Mortgage Finance · 92 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $15.00 | $30.00 | +100% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $13.03 | $8.26 | −37% |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS | $10.06 | $2.01 | −80% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹84.06 | ₹39.96 | −52% |
| UWM Holdings UWMC | $1.46 | $0.1600 | −89% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,169 | ₹1,143 | −2% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹502.00 | ₹1,004 | +100% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹471.10 | ₹325.75 | −31% |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc WD | $39.71 | $32.25 | −19% |
| Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited APTUS | ₹258.50 | ₹244.80 | −5% |
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