PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.3B · ISIN US70932M1071
At a glance
PFPennyMac Finl Svcs IncPFSI · US
Price$69.81
Fair Value$125.45
Upside+79.7%
Quality40/100
Below-average quality, trading 44% below our fair value of $125.45.
As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is $125.45 per share against a price of $69.81, so the fair value sits 80% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.3% net margin
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·1.72% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 51/100
Evidence: HighRange $94.09 to $156.81
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −8.9% over the past month.
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What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($94.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.89 – $158.38 · fair‑value band $94.09 – $156.81 · the $69.81 price screens below the $125.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) currently trades at $69.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.45, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $249.07 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $69.81 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.22, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue declined 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at $22.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Scenario range: $94.09 (bear) to $156.81 (bull), the price of $69.81 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 80%, PFSI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.71 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio7.4
P/S ratio0.85P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$9.41price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4
Dividend yield1.7%payout 12.8%
Net margin11.5%FY2025
Return on equity12.3%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)4.7%avg 5y
Operating margin14.6%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$3.3BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−16.6%3y avg +23.4%
EPS growth (YoY)+7.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$1.4BFY2025
Net debt$22.8BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality40/100
Of which business quality 34
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Profitability31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility23
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance83
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing. The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans.
Full company description
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing. The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans. This segment also sources residential conventional and government-insured or guaranteed mortgage loans through correspondent production, consumer direct lending, and broker direct lending. The Servicing segment performs loan administration, collection, and default management activities, including the collection and remittance of loan payments; responds to customer inquiries; provides accounting for principal and interest; holds custodial funds for the payment of property taxes and insurance premiums; offers counseling for delinquent borrowers; and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions, as well as administers loss mitigation activities comprising modification and forbearance programs, and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $501M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.4B
Latest YoY
+173.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−10.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−11.8%
Dividend yield1.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −9.0% vs 10Y 31.1%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56.7% (2020) → 34.6% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop97% (2013) · in USD
Revenue+5.2%/yr
FY21$3.6B
FY22$2.3B
FY23$1.4B
FY24$1.6B
FY25$4.4B
Net income−15.9%/yr
FY21$1.0B
FY22$476M
FY23$145M
FY24$311M
FY25$501M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+27.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share+18.0 %
of which total revenue +13.4 % · buybacks/dilution +4.1 %
EBIT margin+1.5 %
Tax rate+4.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 0
FUTURE0· sector 100
PAST49· sector 55
HEALTH0· sector 0
DIVIDEND34· sector 100
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
Is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $125.45 versus a price of $69.81, about +80% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PFSI?
Our model-based fair value for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is $125.45 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.81.
What is the quality score of PFSI?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $125.45 (as of Sep 3, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $94.09, optimistic scenario $156.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $125.45, about +80% upside versus a price of $69.81 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $94.09, optimistic scenario $156.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PFSI?
The net profit margin of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is about 15.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc pay a dividend?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc it is $125.45 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026), against a price of $69.81. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 3, 2026, PFSI trades below its calculated fair value: price $69.81, fair value $125.45, a gap of about +80% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PFSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($69.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($125.45). For PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc the two are $55.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc worth?
The market values PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc at about $4.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 3, 2026). Per share that is $69.81; our models calculate a fair value of $125.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PFSI?
Our models span a range for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc: cautious scenario $94.09, base $125.45, optimistic $156.81 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026, price $69.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PFSI?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Sep 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $125.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.7, P/B 1.0, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of PFSI?
The PEG ratio of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 4.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (as of Sep 3, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 3.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PFSI from its 52-week high?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc trades at $69.81, about 56% below its 52-week high of $159.27 (as of Sep 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $125.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 3, 2026: price $69.81, calculated fair value $125.45 (+80%), Quality Score 40/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PFSI calculated?
We run PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $125.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc currently trades 80 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc
PFSI · US