Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PBRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · MX · Market cap 2.0T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 1,291 MXN to 1,240 MXN (−4.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 294% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (928.68 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (928.68 MXN to 3,110 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 56.08 MXN – 384.87 MXN · fair‑value band 928.68 MXN – 3,110 MXN · the 314.50 MXN price screens below the 1,240 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PBRN) currently trades at 314.50 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,240 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 294.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A generated revenue of 498B MXN at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.6%. Net debt stands at 20.1B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 928.68 MXN (bear case) to 3,110 MXN (bull case); at 314.50 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 294%, PBRN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (775.39 MXN) versus Asset-Based (13.66 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.
Full company description
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A reported revenue of 489B MXN in FY2025 versus 84.0B MXN in FY2021, a compound +55.3%/yr. Reported net income was 108B MXN in FY2025, compounding +52.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $159.80 | $88.98 | -44% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$23.84 | C$8.30 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.66 | ¥15.47 | +45% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €39.04 | €46.09 | +18% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$14.29 | C$8.20 | -43% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $42.93 | $8.99 | -79% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.05 | ¥3.67 | -27% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $40.93 | $34.53 | -16% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$88.25 | C$59.11 | -33% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | C$182.00 | C$94.61 | -48% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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