Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $14.8B · ISIN US09581B1035
What is Blue Owl Capital Inc really worth?
Blue Owl Capital Inc
OWL · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 493% above our fair value of $2.00.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +2.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.14 – $24.44 · the $11.84 price screens above the $2.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) currently trades at $11.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.00, implying the stock looks roughly 492.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $17.56 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $11.84 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.52, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Blue Owl Capital Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at $3.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −83%, OWL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($17.56) versus Multiples ($1.52). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager in the United States. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer holistic framework of capital solutions to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants.
Full company description
Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager in the United States. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer holistic framework of capital solutions to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants. The company also provides private financing solutions, such as direct lending products comprising diversified, technology, first lien, and opportunistic lending to middle-market companies; alternative credit; investment grade credit; liquid credit; and other credit solutions. In addition, the company offers GP strategic capital products, which offers capital solutions, including GP minority stakes, GP debt financing, and professional sports minority stakes; and real estate products that focuses on acquiring triple net lease real estate by investment grade or creditworthy tenants, as well as real estate debt finance through net lease and real estate credit. It offers its solutions through permanent capital vehicles and long-dated private funds. Blue Owl Capital Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Blue Owl Capital Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $824M in FY2021, a compound +36.6%/yr. Reported net income was $78.8M in FY2025.
OWL screens 493% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Blue Owl to Present at Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference
- Blue Owl Capital Inc's Dividend Analysis
- BLUE OWL MANAGED FUNDS LEAD $2.4 BILLION AI FACTORY FINANCING FOR IREN
- Blue Owl leads $2.4 billion debt deal for Iren data center
Peer Group
Asset Management · 697 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $142.39 | $52.88 | −63% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 417.20 | kr 824.66 | +98% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$55.74 | C$10.67 | −81% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $108.68 | $19.97 | −82% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $135.04 | $101.04 | −25% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $193.33 | $138.33 | −28% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $559.32 | $515.24 | −8% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $143.10 | $30.88 | −78% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $186.79 | $122.02 | −35% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $181.10 | $142.42 | −21% |
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