Matrix Service Co (MTRX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $393M · ISIN US5768531056
What is Matrix Service Co really worth?
Matrix Service Co
MTRX · US
A solid business, trading 67% below our fair value of $31.65.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $40.04 to $31.65 (−21.0%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −13.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.46 – $15.82 · fair‑value band $23.86 – $39.43 · the $10.55 price screens below the $31.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Matrix Service Co (MTRX) currently trades at $10.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.65, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $48.47 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $10.55 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.40, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Matrix Service Co generated revenue of $845M at a net margin of −1.8%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $203M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.86 (bear case) to $39.43 (bull case); at $10.55, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 200%, MTRX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($48.47) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Matrix Service Company provides engineering, fabrication, construction, and maintenance services to support critical energy infrastructure and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Full company description
Matrix Service Company provides engineering, fabrication, construction, and maintenance services to support critical energy infrastructure and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company's Storage and Terminal Solutions segment offers engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction services related to cryogenic, specialty tanks, and terminals for LNG, NGLs, hydrogen, ammonia, propane, butane, liquid nitrogen/liquid oxygen, and liquid petroleum; and plant work, truck and rail loading/offloading facilities, marine structures, and storage tank and terminal maintenance and repair, as well as undertakes work related to aboveground crude oil and refined product storage tanks and terminals. This segment also provides engineered specialty tank products, including geodesic domes, aluminum internal floating roofs, floating suction and skimmer systems, roof drain systems, and floating roof seals. Its Utility and Power Infrastructure segment undertakes power delivery work, including construction of new substations, upgrades of existing substations, and maintenance. This segment also provides engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction services for LNG utility peak shaving facilities; and construction services to various power generation facilities, including natural gas fired facilities. The company's Process and Industrial Facilities segment offers plant maintenance, repair, and turnarounds, including refining and processing of crude oil, fractionating, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids; and engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction for refinery upgrades and retrofits for hydrogen processing, production, loading, and distribution facilities, as well as constructs thermal vacuum test chambers and other infrastructure for aerospace, defense, and other industries. Matrix Service Company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Matrix Service Co reported revenue of $769M in FY2025 versus $673M in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$29.5M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
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