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Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · ES · Market cap €9.4B · ISIN ES0105025003

What is Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA really worth?

MP Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA MRL · MC
Price€13.26
Fair Value€9.81
Upside−26.0%
Quality51/100

A solid business, but trading 35% above our fair value of €9.81.

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Strengths

Highly profitable · 134.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.9 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Moderate moat 52/100
!Weak on dividend: 26 out of 100
Evidence: High Range €9.09 – €11.65

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −10.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€15.75 €6.56 Fair Value €9.81 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €6.56 – €15.75 · fair‑value band €9.09 – €11.65 · the €13.26 price screens above the €9.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) currently trades at €13.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.81, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €19.96 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the €13.26 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €3.01, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €581M. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at €3.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €9.09 (bear case) to €11.65 (bull case); at €13.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −26%, MRL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.9271 per share, which is 9.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence €11.17 €12.30 €18.12 76
FCF DCF €2.78 €7.82 €15.82 74
Growth DCF €2.78 €7.52 €14.85 73
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €2.78 €7.82 €15.82 74
5Y Revenue Exit €0.5100 €3.59 €7.58 65
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.84 €20.09 €33.93 72
10Y Revenue Exit €1.12 €4.20 €8.52 61
10Y EBITDA Exit €6.56 €15.76 €29.28 64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.75 €3.49 €5.28 67
DDM Multi-Stage €1.75 €3.01 €3.68 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple €4.24 €5.66 €7.07 58
P/B Multiple €16.19 €21.59 €26.98 55
EV/EBIT €19.10 €27.07 €35.05 65
EV/EBITDA €13.77 €19.96 €26.16 67
EV/Revenue €1.27 €3.10 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €6.52 €8.74 €13.04 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €2.78 €7.52 €14.85 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence €11.17 €12.30 €18.12 76

Widest divergence: Multiples (€19.96) versus Dividend Discount (€3.01). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.7
P/S ratio 14.1 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €1.37 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7
Dividend yield 1.3% payout 12.8%
Net margin 146% FY2025
Return on equity 9.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 73.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €581M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.3% 3y avg +7.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −16.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €405M FY2025
Net debt €3.9B FY2025 · ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 8
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region.

Full company description

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region. MERLIN Properties mainly invests in offices, shopping centers, logistics facilities and data centers, within the Core and Core Plus segments, forming part of the benchmark IBEX-35, Euro STOXX 600, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate, GPR Global Index, GPR-250 Index, MSCI Small Caps indices and DJSI. MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. was incorporated in 2014 in Spain.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA reported revenue of €539M in FY2025 versus €383M in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was €786M in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€539M
Latest YoY
+7.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+6.2% (4.9 + 1.3)
Revenue +8.9%/yr
FY21 €383M
FY22 €439M
FY23 €505M
FY24 €503M
FY25 €539M
Net income +11.3%/yr
FY21 €512M
FY22 €263M
FY23 −€83.5M
FY24 €284M
FY25 €786M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.6 %

of which total revenue +10.2 % · buybacks/dilution −8.7 %

EBIT margin −0.7 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

MRL screens 35% overvalued. Compare with BXP, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRL

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

REIT - Office · 69 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −26% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 134% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 74% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 10% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.52× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 18.73× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 26.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 32.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.31× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 24
FUTURE52 · sector 0
PAST38 · sector 11
HEALTH74 · sector 66
DIVIDEND26 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BXP, Inc BXP $67.95 $53.27 −22%
Vornado Realty Trust VNORP $51.00 $40.45 −21%
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE $51.63 $58.69 +14%
Gecina GFC €67.25 €75.35 +12%
Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP $12.74 $3.81 −70%
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU 1.27 SGD 1.14 SGD −10%
Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ $29.25 $17.46 −40%
EMBASSYRR EMBASSYRR ₹449.01 ₹134.34 −70%
Embassy Office Parks REIT owns, EMBASSY ₹435.90 ₹141.82 −67%
DEXUS DXS A$5.96 A$4.49 −25%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.81 versus a price of €13.26, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRL?
Our model-based fair value for Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is €9.81 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.26.
What is the quality score of MRL?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €581M (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MRL?
The net profit margin of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is about 134.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 134.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA pay a dividend?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.32% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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