MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (MRL) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · ES · Market cap €9.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Share price −2.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.56 – €15.75 · fair‑value band €9.09 – €11.65 · the €14.56 price screens above the €9.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A (MRL) currently trades at €14.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.81, implying the stock looks roughly 32.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €581M. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at €3.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.09 (bear case) to €11.65 (bull case); at €14.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -33%, MRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€19.96) versus Dividend Discount (€3.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region.
Full company description
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region. MERLIN Properties mainly invests in offices, shopping centers, logistics facilities and data centers, within the Core and Core Plus segments, forming part of the benchmark IBEX-35, Euro STOXX 600, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate, GPR Global Index, GPR-250 Index, MSCI Small Caps indices and DJSI. MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. was incorporated in 2014 in Spain.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A reported revenue of €539M in FY2025 versus €383M in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was €786M in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MRL screens 33% overvalued. Compare with BXP, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRPRF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Data Center ...
- Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRPRF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong FFO Growth ...
- Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRPRF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth Amidst ...
- MERLIN Properties (BME:MRL): Exploring Valuation Signals After Recent Share Price Swings
Peer Group
REIT - Office · 71 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXP, Inc BXP | $67.95 | $53.27 | -22% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.75 | $41.59 | -20% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $48.06 | $58.69 | +22% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $14.31 | $4.28 | -70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.27 SGD | 1.14 SGD | -10% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $29.49 | $17.46 | -41% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $36.24 | $40.37 | +11% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.21 SGD | 1.68 SGD | -24% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.96 | A$4.49 | -25% |
| COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company CDP | $36.98 | $22.54 | -39% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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