Gecina SA (GFC) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · FR · Market cap €5.5B · ISIN FR0010040865
What is Gecina SA really worth?
A solid business, trading 9% below our fair value of €75.35.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −9.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €59.39 – €100.01 · fair‑value band €56.52 – €94.19 · the €68.20 price screens below the €75.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Gecina SA (GFC) currently trades at €68.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €75.35, implying the stock looks roughly 9.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €107.07 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the €68.20 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €66.00, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Gecina SA generated revenue of €865M at a net margin of 51.9%. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. Net debt stands at €6.8B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 11.3. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €56.52 (bear case) to €94.19 (bull case); at €68.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 10%, GFC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.3587 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (€107.07) versus Dividend Discount (€66.00). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025. Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units.
Full company description
Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025. Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units. By combining long-term value creation with operational excellence, Gecina offers high-quality, sustainable living and working environments tailored to the evolving needs of urban users. As a committed operator, Gecina enhances its assets with high-value services and dynamic property and asset management, fostering vibrant communities. Through its YouFirst brand, Gecina places user experience at the heart of its strategy. In line with its social responsibility commitments, the Foundation Gecina supports initiatives across four core pillars: disability inclusion, environmental protection, cultural heritage, and housing access. Gecina is a French real estate investment trust (SIIC) listed on Euronext Paris, and is part of the SBF 120, CAC Next 20 and CAC Large 60 indices. Gecina is also recognized as one of the top-performing companies in its industry by leading sustainability rankings (GRESB, Sustainalytics, MSCI, ISS-ESG, and CDP) and is committed to radically reducing its carbon emissions by 2030. Gecina was incorporated in 10th February 1959 in France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gecina SA reported revenue of €859M in FY2025 versus €762M in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €448M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
REIT - Office · 69 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €13.51 | €5.66 | −58% |
| BXP, Inc BXP | $67.95 | $53.27 | −22% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.00 | $40.45 | −21% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $51.63 | $58.69 | +14% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $12.74 | $3.81 | −70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.27 SGD | 1.14 SGD | −10% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $29.25 | $17.46 | −40% |
| EMBASSYRR EMBASSYRR | ₹449.01 | ₹134.34 | −70% |
| Embassy Office Parks REIT owns, EMBASSY | ₹435.90 | ₹141.82 | −67% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.96 | A$4.49 | −25% |
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