Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $6.0B
Mercury General Corporation
MCY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $127.00 to $88.88 (−30.0%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.71 – $111.12 · fair‑value band $66.66 – $111.10 · the $104.92 price screens above the $88.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Mercury General Corporation (MCY) currently trades at $104.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $88.88, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mercury General Corporation generated revenue of $6.1B at a net margin of 13.7%. Revenue grew 10.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $729M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $66.66 (bear case) to $111.10 (bull case); at $104.92, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -15%, MCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($88.23) versus Dividend Discount ($18.21). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States. It also writes homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella insurance products.
Full company description
Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States. It also writes homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella insurance products. The company's automobile insurance products include collision, property damage, bodily injury, comprehensive, personal injury protection, underinsured and uninsured motorist, and other hazards; and homeowners insurance products comprise dwelling, liability, personal property, and other coverages. It sells its policies through a network of independent agents and insurance agencies, as well as directly through internet sales portals in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia. Mercury General Corporation was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mercury General Corporation reported revenue of $6.0B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $541M in FY2025, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MCY screens 15% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MCY Outperforms Industry in a Year: Time to Add it for Better Returns?
- Back to School Means Back to Traffic: Mercury Insurance Urges Drivers to Reset Their Commute
- Mercury Gives Oklahoma Homeowners More Ways to Save and Strengthen Their Homes Against Hail and Wildfire
- Should Value Investors Buy Mercury General (MCY) Stock?
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $207.37 | $160.25 | -23% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $343.33 | $234.73 | -32% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $370.16 | $274.42 | -26% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $255.84 | $316.11 | +24% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥6.98 | ¥11.61 | +66% |
| PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 | HK$15.52 | HK$22.28 | +44% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$274.14 | C$167.46 | -39% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,293 | C$2,291 | -0% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 628,000 KRW | 698,407 KRW | +11% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 72.14 PLN | 73.80 PLN | +2% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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