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ICT Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · PH · Market cap 208B PHP

I ICT ICT · PSE
Price985.00 PHP
Fair Value100.50 PHP
Upside-89.8%
Quality63/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
High debt
Trails peers (1/10)
Evidence: High Range 51.37 PHP – 133.80 PHP Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 104.20 PHP to 100.50 PHP (−3.6%) since Jul 10, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (133.80 PHP). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (51.37 PHP to 133.80 PHP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

985.00 PHP 106.63 PHP Fair Value 100.50 PHP Feb 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 106.63 PHP – 985.00 PHP · fair‑value band 51.37 PHP – 133.80 PHP · the 985.00 PHP price screens above the 100.50 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

ICT (ICT) currently trades at 985.00 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 100.50 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 89.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 145.5 (as of Jul 10, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 51.37 PHP (bear case) to 133.80 PHP (bull case); at 985.00 PHP, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 149% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -90%, ICT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (6.73 PHP to 176.12 PHP). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 66.20 PHP 138.14 PHP 272.58 PHP 80
Residual Income 37.43 PHP 51.17 PHP 528.88 PHP 76
Rev-Margin DCF 23.29 PHP 44.32 PHP 72.62 PHP 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 67.34 PHP 147.01 PHP 299.20 PHP 38
Owner Earnings 37.91 PHP 89.03 PHP 186.68 PHP 31
5Y Revenue Exit 23.29 PHP 44.05 PHP 70.97 PHP 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 74.54 PHP 153.57 PHP 255.74 PHP 41
5Y P/E Exit 61.23 PHP 125.13 PHP 200.32 PHP 38
10Y Revenue Exit 35.87 PHP 61.32 PHP 98.66 PHP 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 71.87 PHP 145.15 PHP 262.60 PHP 37
10Y P/E Exit 62.71 PHP 123.38 PHP 213.42 PHP 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 33.74 PHP 176.12 PHP 243.65 PHP 54
Lynch FV 48.28 PHP 68.97 PHP 89.66 PHP 50
PEG = 1.0 48.28 PHP 68.97 PHP 89.66 PHP 46
EPV 62.00 PHP 75.56 PHP 87.60 PHP 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 25.33 PHP 55.29 PHP 93.04 PHP 70
DDM Multi-Stage 25.33 PHP 45.30 PHP 57.63 PHP 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 78.15 PHP 104.20 PHP 130.25 PHP 63
P/S Multiple 22.97 PHP 30.63 PHP 38.28 PHP 58
P/B Multiple 33.91 PHP 45.21 PHP 56.51 PHP 55
EV/EBIT 94.00 PHP 130.26 PHP 166.52 PHP 53
EV/EBITDA 83.53 PHP 116.30 PHP 149.07 PHP 54
EV/Revenue 4.51 PHP 12.78 PHP 21.05 PHP 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 5.02 PHP 6.73 PHP 10.05 PHP 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 66.20 PHP 138.14 PHP 272.58 PHP 80
Rev-Margin DCF 23.29 PHP 44.32 PHP 72.62 PHP 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 37.43 PHP 51.17 PHP 528.88 PHP 76
ROIC Compounder 73.68 PHP 105.13 PHP 145.70 PHP 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 72.05 PHP 102.93 PHP 133.80 PHP 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (123.38 PHP) versus Asset-Based (6.73 PHP). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ICT reported revenue of 3.2B PHP in FY2025 versus 1.9B PHP in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B PHP in FY2025, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.2B PHP
Latest YoY
+18.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.5%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Revenue +14.8%/yr
FY21 1.9B PHP
FY22 2.2B PHP
FY23 2.4B PHP
FY24 2.7B PHP
FY25 3.2B PHP
Net income +25.1%/yr
FY21 429M PHP
FY22 618M PHP
FY23 512M PHP
FY24 850M PHP
FY25 1.0B PHP

ICT screens 90% overvalued. Compare with TUGS →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ICT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ICT

Peer Group

Industrials · 5376 stocks

How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Transport Infrastructure” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −90% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.72× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Industrials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 145.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.60× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 5
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 27
HEALTH 14 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Transport Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
TUGS TUGS 1.04 PHP 2.65 PHP +155%
LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 365,500 KRW 201,455 KRW -45%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
WEG S.A WEGE3 14,900 ARS 4,338 ARS -71%
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 496,000 KRW 272,966 KRW -45%
Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 1,156,000 KRW 573,468 KRW -50%
SK Inc 034730 553,000 KRW 615,077 KRW +11%
HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 782,000 KRW 371,133 KRW -53%
LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 208,500 KRW 29,594 KRW -86%
PT Astra International Tbk, ASII 4,860 IDR 9,720 IDR +100%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ICT overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 100.50 PHP versus a price of 985.00 PHP, about −90% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ICT?
Our model-based fair value for ICT is 100.50 PHP (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 985.00 PHP.
What is the quality score of ICT?
ICT has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the net profit margin of ICT?
The net profit margin of ICT is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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