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Henry Schein, Inc (HSIC) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $10.0B

HS Henry Schein, Inc logo Henry Schein, Inc HSIC · US
Price$90.12
Fair Value$71.70
Upside-20.4%
Quality60/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 3.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: Medium Range $47.03 – $96.08 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $74.67 to $71.70 (−4.0%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +3.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($47.03 to $96.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$91.96 $61.89 Fair Value $71.70 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $61.89 – $91.96 · fair‑value band $47.03 – $96.08 · the $90.12 price screens above the $71.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Henry Schein, Inc (HSIC) currently trades at $90.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.70, implying the stock looks roughly 20.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Henry Schein, Inc generated revenue of $13.4B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.8%. Net debt stands at $3.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $47.03 (bear case) to $96.08 (bull case); at $90.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at -20%, HSIC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $38.88 $66.39 $105.63 80
Residual Income $26.71 $31.00 $50.38 76
Rev-Margin DCF $38.42 $73.03 $112.51 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $37.83 $68.76 $115.65 38
Owner Earnings $37.54 $68.31 $114.95 31
5Y Revenue Exit $38.42 $73.00 $116.95 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $57.86 $109.19 $168.91 41
5Y P/E Exit $34.24 $65.22 $97.38 38
10Y Revenue Exit $35.83 $67.30 $109.17 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $50.04 $92.36 $148.65 37
10Y P/E Exit $35.01 $61.92 $94.30 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $23.76 $72.08 $95.62 54
Lynch FV $15.41 $22.01 $28.61 50
PEG = 1.0 $15.41 $22.01 $28.61 46
EPV $33.93 $42.73 $50.44 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $169.26 $351.93 $558.30 70
DDM Multi-Stage $169.26 $276.77 $369.36 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $57.65 $76.86 $96.08 63
P/S Multiple $44.55 $59.39 $74.24 58
P/B Multiple $44.55 $59.39 $74.24 55
EV/EBIT $65.93 $94.21 $122.49 53
EV/EBITDA $79.62 $112.47 $145.31 54
EV/Revenue $41.64 $67.59 $93.54 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $14.24 $19.09 $28.49 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $38.88 $66.39 $105.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF $38.42 $73.03 $112.51 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $26.71 $31.00 $50.38 76
ROIC Compounder $35.27 $49.64 $67.63 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $47.03 $67.19 $87.34 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($276.77) versus Asset-Based ($19.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $13.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.3%
Net margin 3.0%
Return on equity 8.8%
Free cash flow $573M FY2025
P/E ratio 27.2
More key figures
Operating margin 5.9%
EPS (TTM) $3.31
EPS growth (YoY) +4.5%
Net debt $3.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Henry Schein, Inc. provides health care products and services to office-based dental and medical practitioners worldwide. It operates through Global Distribution and Value-Added Services; Global Specialty Products; and Global Technology segments.

Full company description

Henry Schein, Inc. provides health care products and services to office-based dental and medical practitioners worldwide. It operates through Global Distribution and Value-Added Services; Global Specialty Products; and Global Technology segments. The Global Distribution and Value-Added Services segment distributes infection-control products, handpieces, preventatives, impression materials, composites, anesthetics, teeth, gypsum, acrylics, articulators, abrasives, PPE products, branded and generic pharmaceuticals, vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, dental chairs, delivery units and lights, digital dental laboratories, X-ray supplies and equipment, and high-tech and digital restoration equipment, as well as provides equipment repair services, financial services on a non-recourse basis, continuing education services for practitioners, consulting, and other services. It also markets and sells a portfolio of consumable merchandise under its own corporate brand. The Global Specialty Products segment engage in manufacturing, marketing, and sales of dental implant and biomaterial products; and endodontic, orthodontic and orthopedic products, and other health care-related products and services. The Global Technology segment is involved in the development and distribution of practice management software, e-services, and other products which are distributed to health care providers. The company serves dental practices, laboratories, physician practices, and ambulatory surgery centers, as well as government, institutional health care clinics, home health providers, and other alternate care clinics. Henry Schein, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Henry Schein, Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $398M in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$13.2B
Latest YoY
+4.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.2%
Revenue +1.5%/yr
FY21 $12.4B
FY22 $12.6B
FY23 $12.3B
FY24 $12.7B
FY25 $13.2B
Net income −10.6%/yr
FY21 $624M
FY22 $538M
FY23 $416M
FY24 $390M
FY25 $398M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.9 pp

of which total revenue +1.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +3.2 pp

EBIT margin −2.2 pp
Tax rate +1.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

HSIC screens 20% overvalued. Compare with McKesson Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henry Schein, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSIC

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Medical Distribution · 77 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −20% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.71× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.08× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.75× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 17.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.84× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 6 · sector 27
FUTURE 32 · sector 17
PAST 35 · sector 22
HEALTH 64 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 52

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $878.73 $819.31 -7%
Cencora, Inc COR $314.17 $211.07 -33%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $234.16 $141.77 -39%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.56 ¥33.96 +105%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$16.75 HK$58.67 +250%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 80.85 CHF 61.79 -24%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥21.49 ¥28.65 +33%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥5.04 ¥9.84 +95%
Asker Healthcare Group ASKER kr 80.00 kr 28.26 -65%
China National Medicines Corporation 600511 ¥27.35 ¥58.22 +113%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Henry Schein, Inc (HSIC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $71.70 versus a price of $90.12, about −20% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HSIC?
Our model-based fair value for Henry Schein, Inc is $71.70 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $90.12.
What is the quality score of HSIC?
Henry Schein, Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Henry Schein, Inc (HSIC)?
Henry Schein, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HSIC?
The net profit margin of Henry Schein, Inc is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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