Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc (HRTG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $704M · ISIN US42727J1025
What is Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc really worth?
Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc
HRTG · US
A solid business, trading 32% below our fair value of $51.49.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +17.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($38.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.32 – $35.21 · fair‑value band $38.62 – $64.36 · the $34.94 price screens below the $51.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc (HRTG) currently trades at $34.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.49, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $83.99 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $34.94 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.18, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc generated revenue of $848M at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $459M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.62 (bear case) to $64.36 (bull case); at $34.94, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 47%, HRTG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.43 per share, which is 8.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($83.99) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products.
Full company description
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. It offers personal residential insurance in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia; and commercial residential property insurance in Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, and New York. The company also provides homeowners insurance, condo insurance, dwelling fire, equipment coverage, and artisan contractor program. It offers insurance products through a network of independent agents. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc reported revenue of $847M in FY2025 versus $632M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $196M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +9.4 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 117 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $217.65 | $160.25 | −26% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $338.31 | $234.73 | −31% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $369.90 | $274.42 | −26% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $260.58 | $316.11 | +21% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.14 | ¥11.61 | +63% |
| PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 | HK$15.25 | HK$22.27 | +46% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$274.14 | C$167.46 | −39% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,281 | C$2,926 | +28% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$22.62 | A$14.20 | −37% |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | $171.97 | $166.34 | −3% |
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