HUTCHMED (HCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what HUTCHMED is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.65 – $42.94 · fair‑value band $24.06 – $95.67 · the $14.48 price screens below the $32.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
HUTCHMED (China) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies to treat cancer and immunological diseases in Hong Kong, the United States, and internationally.
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HUTCHMED (China) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies to treat cancer and immunological diseases in Hong Kong, the United States, and internationally. It provides Fruquintinib, a selective and potent oral inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors for treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC), breast cancer, gastric cancer (GC), microsatellite stable-CRC endometrial cancer (EMC), non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), renal cell carcinoma (RCC), endometrial cancer (EMC); and Savolitinib, a potent and selective inhibitor of mesenchymal-epithelial transition receptor to treat NSCLC, papillary RCC, and GC. It also develops Surufatinib to treat pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (NET), non pancreatic NET, and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; Sovleplenib, to treat immune thrombocytopenic purpura and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia; and Tazemetostat, a treatment for epithelioid sarcoma and follicular lymphoma; Fanregratinib that treats intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; and Ranosidenib, a novel dual-inhibitor of dehydrogenase-1 and isocitrate dehydrogenase-2 enzymes to treat acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In addition, the company is developing HMPL-760, which is in phase I and II clinical trial to treat relapsed and/or refractory diffuse large B cell lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, small lymphocytic lymphoma, and other B-NHL; HMPL-506 to treat Mixed-lineage leukemia-rearrange/rearrangement and nucleophosmin 1-mutantAML. It has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca AB (publ), Lilly (Shanghai) Management Company Limited, Takeda, Inmagene Biopharmaceuticals Co. Ltd., Innovent Biologics Co., Inc., and Epizyme, Inc., and Epizyme, Inc. The company was formerly known as Hutchison China MediTech Limited and changed its name to HUTCHMED (China) Limited in May 2021. HUTCHMED (China) Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
HUTCHMED DRC (HCM) currently trades at $14.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.08, implying the stock looks roughly 54.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.60 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the $14.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.82, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.06 (bear) to $95.67 (bull), the price of $14.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
HUTCHMED DRC reported revenue of $550M in FY2025 versus $356M in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $458M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 4.55 · EPS (TTM) $2.65 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 83.3% · Return on equity 45.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 122%, HCM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.06Fair Value $32.08Bull $95.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +72.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+65.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−87% → −10%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 559% above its own trend.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 607 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+128% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)83% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HUTCHMED DRC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCM
Frequently asked questions
Is HUTCHMED (HCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.08 versus a price of $14.48, about +122% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HCM?
Our model-based fair value for HUTCHMED DRC is $32.08 (as of Sep 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.48.
What is the quality score of HCM?
HUTCHMED DRC has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HUTCHMED (HCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.08 (as of Sep 20, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.06, optimistic scenario $95.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HUTCHMED DRC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.08, about +122% upside versus a price of $14.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.06, optimistic scenario $95.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
HUTCHMED DRC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $549M (latest available figure, as of Sep 20, 2026).
Does HUTCHMED DRC pay a dividend?
HUTCHMED DRC currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HUTCHMED DRC it is $32.08 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026), against a price of $14.48. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HUTCHMED DRC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 20, 2026, HCM trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.48, fair value $32.08, a gap of about +122% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.08). For HUTCHMED DRC the two are $17.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HUTCHMED DRC worth?
The market values HUTCHMED DRC at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 20, 2026). Per share that is $14.48; our models calculate a fair value of $32.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCM?
Our models span a range for HUTCHMED DRC: cautious scenario $24.06, base $32.08, optimistic $95.67 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026, price $14.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCM?
HUTCHMED DRC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for HUTCHMED DRC (as of Sep 20, 2026): return on equity 45.3%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCM from its 52-week high?
HUTCHMED DRC trades at $14.48, about 26% below its 52-week high of $19.50 and 45% above the low of $10.01 (as of Sep 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HUTCHMED DRC?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HUTCHMED DRC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 20, 2026: price $14.48, calculated fair value $32.08 (+122%), Quality Score 44/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCM calculated?
We run HUTCHMED DRC through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HUTCHMED DRC currently trades 122 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $14.48. Our model-based fair value is $32.08, about +122% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HUTCHMED DRC right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($24.06 to $95.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of HUTCHMED DRC
How large is the market capitalisation of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The market capitalisation of HUTCHMED DRC is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HUTCHMED DRC is 4.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
Earnings per share at HUTCHMED DRC are $2.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The dividend yield of HUTCHMED DRC is 7.0% (payout 38.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The net margin of HUTCHMED DRC is 83.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HUTCHMED DRC is 45.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HUTCHMED DRC is −13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HUTCHMED (HCM)?
The operating margin of HUTCHMED DRC is −13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HUTCHMED (HCM)?
Revenue at HUTCHMED DRC is growing −16.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HUTCHMED (HCM)?
Earnings per share at HUTCHMED DRC are growing −98.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HUTCHMED (HCM) generate?
The free cash flow of HUTCHMED DRC is −$79.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HUTCHMED (HCM) carry?
The net debt of HUTCHMED DRC is $26.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 20, 2026