Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR (TAK) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $55.8B · ISIN US8740602052
What is Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR really worth?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR
TAK · US
A solid business, but trading 68% above our fair value of $11.11.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from $11.29 to $11.11 (−1.6%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +13.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.74 – $18.77 · fair‑value band $6.51 – $11.48 · the $18.71 price screens above the $11.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR (TAK) currently trades at $18.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.11, implying the stock looks roughly 68.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.49 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $18.71 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.71, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥4.5T at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at ¥4.3T. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.51 (bear case) to $11.48 (bull case); at $18.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −41%, TAK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($13.49) versus Earnings-Based ($3.71). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience.
Full company description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Takhzyro, Advate, Elaprase, Replagal, Vpriv, Adynovate/Adynovi, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Flexbumin, Adcetris, Leuplin/Enantone, Ninlaro, Iclusig, FRUZAQLA, Alunbrig, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA brands. It has licensing and collaboration for the development and commercialization of products with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Cour Pharmaceuticals, Engitix, Halozyme, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Ucsd/Fortis Advisors, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Ac Immune, Acurastem, Anima Biotech, Biomarin, Denali Therapeutics, Luxna Biotech, Neurocrine Biosciences, Peptidream, Abbvie, Adimab, Ascentage Pharma, Crescendo Biologics, Exelixis, F-Star, Gsk, Heidelberg Pharma, Innovent Biologics, Keros Therapeutics, Kumquat Biosciences, Protagonist Therapeutics, Halozyme, Kamada, Johnson & Johnson/Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Previpharma, Novavax, Bridgene Biosciences, Charles River Laboratories, Iambic Therapeutics, Ipsen, Km Biologics, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, and Nabla Bio. The company operates in Japan, the United States. Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥4.8T in FY2026 versus ¥3.6T in FY2022, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥203B in FY2026, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +11.7 % · buybacks/dilution −8.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TAK screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Takeda Receives U.S. FDA Approval of MIMRYLO™ (rusfertide), Marking a Potential Shift in the Treatment Paradigm for Polycythemia Vera
- Takeda gains approval of rusfertide for polycythemia vera
- KROS $20M Takeda Milestone Adds Cash but Revenue Visibility Stays Weak
- Takeda (TSE:4502) Stock Looks Undervalued As AI Drug Discovery Progress Builds
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 608 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merck KGaA MRK | €140.25 | €106.48 | −24% |
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.76 | ¥25.94 | −52% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,944 | ₹989.50 | −49% |
| Galderma Group GALD | CHF 178.55 | CHF 55.07 | −69% |
| Haleon plc HLN | $10.11 | $7.64 | −24% |
| Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA | $36.05 | $15.33 | −57% |
| Sandoz Group SDZ | CHF 70.66 | CHF 39.21 | −45% |
| Zoetis Inc ZTS | $77.10 | $104.88 | +36% |
| Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 | HK$35.12 | HK$16.18 | −54% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹8,525 | ₹1,228 | −86% |
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