Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.5B · ISIN US3873281071
What is Granite Construction Incorporated really worth?
Granite Construction Incorporated
GVA · US
A solid business, but trading 55% above our fair value of $76.90.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −2.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($102.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($56.25 to $102.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.61 – $160.26 · fair‑value band $56.25 – $102.37 · the $119.48 price screens above the $76.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) currently trades at $119.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $76.90, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $93.40 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $119.48 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.06, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Granite Construction Incorporated generated revenue of $4.6B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 30.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.0%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $56.25 (bear case) to $102.37 (bull case); at $119.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −36%, GVA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.14 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($93.40) versus Dividend Discount ($7.18). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Granite Construction Incorporated provides infrastructure solutions for public and private clients in the United States. It operates through Construction and Materials segments.
Full company description
Granite Construction Incorporated provides infrastructure solutions for public and private clients in the United States. It operates through Construction and Materials segments. The Construction segment engages in the construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports, marine ports, dams, reservoirs, aqueducts, infrastructure, and site development for use by the public and water-related construction for municipal agencies, commercial water suppliers, industrial facilities, and energy companies; and construction of various complex projects, including infrastructure and site development, mining, public safety, tunnel, solar, battery storage, and power related projects. The Materials segment produces and delivers aggregates, asphalt concrete, liquid asphalt, and recycled materials for internal use in construction projects and sale to third parties. It also provides site preparation, mining, and infrastructure services for railways, residential development, energy development, and commercial and industrial sites; produces construction materials; and provides construction management professional services, as well as owns and leases aggregate reserves and processing plants. The company serves federal agencies, state departments of transportation, local transit authorities, county and city public works departments, school districts and developers, utilities, contractors, landscapers, manufacturers of products requiring aggregate materials, retailers, homeowners, farmers, brokers, and private owners of industrial, commercial, and residential sites. Granite Construction Incorporated was incorporated in 1922 and is headquartered in Watsonville, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Granite Construction Incorporated reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $193M in FY2025, compounding +109.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +5.8 % · buybacks/dilution −3.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GVA screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Wall Street Analysts See a 30.86% Upside in Granite Construction (GVA): Can the Stock Really Move This High?
- Granite Awarded Burke-Gilman Trail Project in Seattle
- How Investors May Respond To Granite Construction (GVA) Board Addition And Higher 2026 Revenue Guidance
- Granite Awarded $31 Million Early Works Package for Willow Rock Energy Storage Center in California
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
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