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Gray Television Inc (GTNA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $852M · ISIN US3893752051

What is Gray Television Inc really worth?

GT Gray Television Inc logo Gray Television Inc GTNA · US
Price$5.97
Fair Value$5.83
Upside−2.3%
Quality56/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $5.83.

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Strengths

✓Ranks above peers (8/9)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 60/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $2.30 to $9.52
!Weak on balance sheet: 5 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $2.30 – $9.52

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $9.04 to $5.83 (−35.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −9.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($2.30 to $9.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$21.16 $5.00 Fair Value $5.83 Feb 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.00 – $21.16 · fair‑value band $2.30 – $9.52 · the $5.97 price screens above the $5.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Gray Television Inc (GTNA) currently trades at $5.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.83, implying the stock looks roughly 2.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $44.66 per share, and 24 of the 25 models we run sit above the $5.97 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.04, and 1 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. Net debt stands at $3.5B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 2.0 (as of Jun 20, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.30 (bear case) to $9.52 (bull case); at $5.97, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −2%, GTNA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2024 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.32 per share, which is 39.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence — — $36.02 77
Growth DCF — $1.04 $25.49 75
Owner Earnings — $19.36 $65.05 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence — — $36.02 77
Owner Earnings — $19.36 $65.05 73
5Y Revenue Exit $4.59 $49.27 $114.31 64
5Y EBITDA Exit $8.16 $57.21 $123.17 67
5Y P/E Exit — $30.17 $72.06 68
10Y Revenue Exit — $33.15 $99.86 64
10Y EBITDA Exit — $38.71 $107.16 65
10Y P/E Exit — $19.80 $65.07 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $17.86 $105.20 $146.49 63
Lynch FV $29.84 $42.63 $55.42 61
PEG = 1.0 $29.84 $42.63 $55.42 57
EPV $5.09 $11.00 $15.93 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.57 $8.24 $11.34 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.57 $7.52 $8.80 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $43.34 $57.79 $72.24 63
P/S Multiple $33.49 $44.66 $55.82 58
P/B Multiple $33.49 $44.66 $55.82 55
EV/EBIT $34.00 $58.10 $82.19 64
EV/EBITDA $25.01 $46.11 $67.20 65
EV/Revenue $15.32 $38.29 $61.26 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.27 $13.77 $20.54 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF — $1.04 $25.49 75
Rev-Margin DCF $4.59 $46.83 $106.00 64
Economic Profit
Residual Income $18.23 $20.91 $37.98 73
ROIC Compounder $5.09 $11.00 $15.93 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $44.71 $63.87 $83.03 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($63.87) versus Growth DCF ($1.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 2.0 as of Jun 20, 2026
P/S ratio 0.20 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.32 price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.0
Dividend yield 9.9% payout 25.4%
Net margin 10.3% FY2024
Return on equity 11.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% avg 5y
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $275M FY2019
Net debt $3.5B FY2019 · ≈ 12.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 52
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

Gray Television Inc reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2024 versus $2.4B in FY2020, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was $375M in FY2024, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2020.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2024)
$3.6B
Latest YoY
+11.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.2% (10.3 + 9.9)
Revenue +11.2%/yr
FY20 $2.4B
FY21 $2.4B
FY22 $3.7B
FY23 $3.3B
FY24 $3.6B
Net income −2.2%/yr
FY20 $410M
FY21 $90.0M
FY22 $455M
FY23 −$76.0M
FY24 $375M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gray Television Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GTNA

Peer Group

Media & Publishing · 15 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −2% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Revenue growth 0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.91× · Higher than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE30 · sector 30
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST44 · sector 40
HEALTH5 · sector 100
DIVIDEND100 · sector 96

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gray Television Inc (GTNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.83 versus a price of $5.97, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GTNA?
Our model-based fair value for Gray Television Inc is $5.83 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.97.
What is the quality score of GTNA?
Gray Television Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the net profit margin of GTNA?
The net profit margin of Gray Television Inc is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gray Television Inc pay a dividend?
Gray Television Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.86% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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