Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.9B · ISIN US2017231034
What is Commercial Metals Company really worth?
Commercial Metals Company
CMC · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 275% above our fair value of $18.34.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from $13.01 to $18.34 (+41.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.64 – $82.67 · fair‑value band $13.76 – $22.93 · the $68.75 price screens above the $18.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) currently trades at $68.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.34, implying the stock looks roughly 274.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $47.41 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $68.75 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.61, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Commercial Metals Company generated revenue of $8.4B at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 21.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. Net debt stands at $311M. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.76 (bear case) to $22.93 (bull case); at $68.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −73%, CMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.75 per share, which is 20.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($47.41) versus Dividend Discount ($9.61). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
Notify me when CMC reaches fair value
Put CMC on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, and related materials and services in the United States, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Steel Group; Europe Steel Group; and Emerging Businesses Group.
Full company description
Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, and related materials and services in the United States, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Steel Group; Europe Steel Group; and Emerging Businesses Group. The company processes and sells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to steel mills and foundries, aluminum sheet and ingot manufacturers, brass and bronze ingot makers, copper refineries and mills, secondary lead smelters, specialty steel mills, high temperature alloy manufacturers, and other consumers. It also manufactures and sells finished long steel products, including reinforcing bar, merchant bar, light structural, wire rod, and other special sections, as well as semi-finished billets for rerolling and forging applications. In addition, the company provides fabricated rebar used to reinforce concrete primarily in the construction of commercial and non-commercial buildings, hospitals, convention centers, industrial plants, power plants, highways, bridges, arenas, stadiums, and dams; sells and rents construction-related products and equipment to concrete installers and other businesses; and manufactures and sells strength bars for the truck trailer industry, special bar steels for the energy market, and armor plates for military vehicles. Further, it sells wire meshes, welded steel mesh, wire rod, cold rolled rebar, cold rolled wire rod, assembled rebar cages and other fabricated rebar by-products to fabricators, manufacturers, distributors, and construction companies. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Commercial Metals Company reported revenue of $7.8B in FY2025 versus $6.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $84.7M in FY2025, compounding −32.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CMC screens 275% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CMC Named to Newsweek's America's Greatest Companies 2026 List
- Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock Could Be Cheap Relative To Fair Value
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 251 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $490.58 | $101.35 | −79% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $210.76 | $35.74 | −83% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $62.80 | $59.33 | −6% |
| Aurubis AG NDA | €178.90 | €223.43 | +25% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥8.87 | ¥3.39 | −62% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥27.08 | ¥8.34 | −69% |
| Viohalco S.A VIO | €16.46 | €14.98 | −9% |
| ESAB Corporation ESAB | $86.05 | $52.40 | −39% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥104.36 | ¥44.23 | −58% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥48.83 | ¥24.43 | −50% |
Compare Commercial Metals Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Commercial Metals Company (CMC) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CMC?
What is the quality score of CMC?
What is the revenue of Commercial Metals Company (CMC)?
What is the net profit margin of CMC?
Does Commercial Metals Company pay a dividend?
Watch Commercial Metals Company in the live analysis
One click puts Commercial Metals Company on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.