ATI Inc (ATI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $25.4B
ATI Inc
ATI · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $36.51 to $35.74 (−2.1%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price +19.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($53.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($20.55 to $53.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.06 – $230.43 · fair‑value band $20.55 – $53.04 · the $227.22 price screens above the $35.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ATI Inc (ATI) currently trades at $227.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.74, implying the stock looks roughly 84.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ATI Inc generated revenue of $4.6B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.7%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.55 (bear case) to $53.04 (bull case); at $227.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 223% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -84%, ATI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($49.29) versus Dividend Discount ($1.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions.
Full company description
ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. The company produces high performance materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, and metallic powder alloys, as well as long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, seamless tubes, plus precision forgings, components, and machined parts. It also offers zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in various forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. In addition, the company provides hot-rolling conversion services comprising carbon steel products. It serves medical and specialty energy, aerospace and defense, construction and mining, transportation, oil and gas, automotive, food equipment and appliances, and mining markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ATI Inc reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $404M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.
ATI screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ATI (ATI) is on the Move, Here's Why the Trend Could be Sustainable
- ATI Q2 Deep Dive: Portfolio Transformation and Defense Demand Drive Margin Expansion
- ATI (ATI) Lifts Outlook As Record Backlog Tests An Overvalued Narrative
- ATI Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 251 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $528.64 | $101.35 | -81% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $68.28 | $59.33 | -13% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥8.87 | ¥3.39 | -62% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥27.08 | ¥8.34 | -69% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥104.36 | ¥44.23 | -58% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥52.92 | ¥24.43 | -54% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥48.40 | ¥8.07 | -83% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥86.20 | ¥42.71 | -50% |
| SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 | ¥3.32 | ¥1.35 | -59% |
| Catcher Technology Co 2474 | 203.00 TWD | 214.05 TWD | +5% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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