Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $25.4B · ISIN US01741R1023

What is Allegheny Technologies Incorporated really worth?

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated ATI · US

Price$204.54

Fair Value$35.74

Upside−82.5% ⚠

Quality63/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 472% above our fair value of $35.74.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.0 %/yr)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.3% net margin

!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)

!Moderate moat 61/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on future: 3 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range $20.55 – $53.04

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +2.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($53.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range ($20.55 to $53.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.06 – $231.78 · fair‑value band $20.55 – $53.04 · the $204.54 price screens above the $35.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) currently trades at $204.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.74, implying the stock looks roughly 472.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $49.29 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $204.54 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.86, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Allegheny Technologies Incorporated generated revenue of $4.6B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.7%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $20.55 (bear case) to $53.04 (bull case); at $204.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 190% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −83%, ATI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.05 per share, which is 5.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($1.28 to $55.57). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $16.11 $26.81 $41.80 79

Growth DCF $16.94 $27.02 $40.61 78

Owner Earnings $12.89 $22.24 $35.35 75

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $16.11 $26.81 $41.80 79

Owner Earnings $12.89 $22.24 $35.35 75

5Y Revenue Exit $20.75 $37.26 $57.51 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $24.23 $43.37 $64.55 74

5Y P/E Exit $20.72 $37.22 $53.42 70

10Y Revenue Exit $17.76 $32.12 $49.65 65

10Y EBITDA Exit $20.93 $36.22 $54.72 67

10Y P/E Exit $18.75 $32.09 $46.70 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $20.15 $43.39 $55.15 66

PEG = 1.0 $6.72 $9.60 $12.48 57

EPV $27.52 $33.70 $39.10 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $0.8900 $1.38 $1.91 68

DDM Multi-Stage $0.8900 $1.28 $1.72 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $37.77 $50.36 $62.95 63

P/S Multiple $37.77 $50.36 $62.95 58

P/B Multiple $29.75 $39.67 $49.58 55

EV/EBIT $39.30 $55.57 $71.85 65

EV/EBITDA $34.58 $49.29 $63.99 67

EV/Revenue $25.76 $40.88 $56.01 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $6.61 $8.86 $13.22 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $16.94 $27.02 $40.61 78

Rev-Margin DCF $20.75 $37.50 $55.04 72

Economic Profit

Residual Income $20.33 $29.37 $189.75 64

ROIC Compounder $28.76 $37.19 $46.23 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $28.29 $40.42 $52.54 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($49.29) versus Dividend Discount ($1.28). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 67.5

P/S ratio 5.95 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) $3.03 price ÷ EPS = P/E 67.5

Dividend yield 0.1% payout 3.6%

Net margin 8.8% FY2025

Return on equity 22.7% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% avg 5y

Operating margin 16.1% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) $4.6B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +0.6% 3y avg +6.1%

EPS growth (YoY) +26.9%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow $334M FY2025

Net debt $1.5B FY2025 · ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 56

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 62

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 48

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 53

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 51

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 53

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 82

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 100

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions.

Full company description

ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. The company produces high performance materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, and metallic powder alloys, as well as long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, seamless tubes, plus precision forgings, components, and machined parts. It also offers zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in various forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. In addition, the company provides hot-rolling conversion services comprising carbon steel products. It serves medical and specialty energy, aerospace and defense, construction and mining, transportation, oil and gas, automotive, food equipment and appliances, and mining markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $404M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

$4.6B

Latest YoY

+5.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+9.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (29Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+0.6%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+12.5% (12.4 + 0.1)

Revenue +13.1%/yr

FY21 $2.8B

FY22 $3.8B

FY23 $7.5B

FY24 $4.4B

FY25 $4.6B

Net income +21.7%/yr

FY21 $185M

FY22 $324M

FY23 $411M

FY24 $368M

FY25 $404M

ATI screens 472% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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Allegheny Technologies Incorporated · Fair Value
$35.74 −472%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allegheny Technologies Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATI

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 251 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −83% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%

Return on assets 8% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 1% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%

Debt / equity 0.95× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 67.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/B 14.08× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 5.53× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/FCF 76.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 31.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

PEG 1.20× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE3 · sector 35

PAST91 · sector 21

HEALTH52 · sector 95

DIVIDEND1 · sector 26

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.74 versus a price of $204.54, about −83% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of ATI?

Our model-based fair value for Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is $35.74 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $204.54.

What is the quality score of ATI?

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI)?

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of ATI?

The net profit margin of Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is about 9.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Allegheny Technologies Incorporated pay a dividend?

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).

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